Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[Eephus Speed]

A trade could be made for someone who has more value than Bay (either a position player or a pitcher).

I thought long and hard about that because it's usually my first answer. I don't like getting into this whole FA thing because it's such an unreliable way to build a franchise (unless you have an unlimited budget).

I just can't see the Cards further depleting their already decimated system. We don't have much left to trade. Lynn? Craig? Jones? Those guys have some value, I suppose, but it's limited at best... far below Jess Todd and Chris Perez who only managed to bring us DeRosa this season.

When I was typing that, it did occur to me that we may not have much in the way of trade bait. Still, I'd rather sink or swim with Cameron/DeRosa/Craig than invest a huge sum and a handful of years in Bay. And I suspect we could come up with some adequate trade bait if necessary.

[JL21]

A trade could be made for someone who has more value than Bay (either a position player or a pitcher).

I thought long and hard about that because it's usually my first answer. I don't like getting into this whole FA thing because it's such an unreliable way to build a franchise (unless you have an unlimited budget).

I just can't see the Cards further depleting their already decimated system. We don't have much left to trade. Lynn? Craig? Jones? Those guys have some value, I suppose, but it's limited at best... far below Jess Todd and Chris Perez who only managed to bring us DeRosa this season.

Yeah, I'm with you there 100%. I guess they might be able to swing a deal for some kind of bullpen or bench help, but that's the extent of it. Whatever improvements they make for '10 pretty much have to happen now because I can't imagine they'll get any serious help later.

[Fat Strat]

There's too much flexibility around the core that's in place to get sucked into the LF-or-bust mentality.

I get what you're saying, but I can't get past the fact that this is just an 80 win core (with things breaking realistically). That's an assumption, of course, but it seems about right to me... Right enough that I'm willing to go with it for this conversation. 80 wins is a good core, really, but it's not a guarantee that we'll make the playoffs and it seems like it would be easier right now for that core to break the wrong way rather than improve. Ryan is potentially an offensive liability (if he isn't already). Skip is versatile, as you say, but he's mediocre everywhere and hardly a player that should be built around. Carp? Franklin? Lohse? All wildcards.

I think that you have to look at it as a "LF-or-bust" mentality if you truly want to make this team into the dynasty that it realistically could be. There's no 2nd baseman that's going to give us 6 WAR. No one can back up Franklin at that value. No real reason to invest the $$'s we're talking about to get a 4-6 win 4th starter...

To me, it's either significantly improve LF or just hang on and hope that 85-90 wins will take the Central and the Cards get hot during the postseason. That core is not as good as the Dodgers and Phillies and its reasonable to consider that with a little money and some better breaks the Cubs, Brewers, and a lesser extent the Reds could match that.

I personally, and I know this is debatable, would rather just "pay that man his money" and secure a 83-85 win core (Bay) or an 86 win core (Holliday) and have a good early excuse to drop hundreds at the ballpark a couple times this coming season!

[Eephus Speed]

It seems we all more or less agree wrt Holliday being the best option. So, is there a line we shouldn't cross? $140M/7yr? More?

No real reason to invest the $$'s we're talking about to get a 4-6 win 4th starter...

Well, Halladay is the guy who popped into my head. Not a 4th starter (or what I'd call a 2-3 win starter). But I'd have to agree that we may not have in the minors what it would take to acquire him. Sure, we could give up a package including Wainwright or Rasmus, but that doesn't interest me.

Of course, that doesn't change how I feel about Bay and our left field situation.

[Fat Strat]

It seems we all more or less agree wrt Holliday being the best option. So, is there a line we shouldn't cross? $140M/7yr? More?

They keep talking about Holliday wanting Texiera money. OK. Sounds good to me. That's the line.

8 years, $180 million
09:$20M, 10:$20M, 11-16:$22.5M annually

At the time, Tex was 28 with this career line - .290 .378 .541 .919 134

Holliday? 29 years old with this line -- .318 .387 .545 .933 133

Both are elite defenders for their position. Neither plays an unusual position that would dramatically increase their contract value.

I would be comfortable offering him a 7 year contract worth $140, and if the Yankees stay out of the bidding, I would hope that we could get him for slightly less than Tex's numbers... say 7 years, 155 million.

[TheoSqua]

i'd go 8/152 with Holliday.
Any more than that and you're looking at potentially paying Pujols/Holliday $50m/year combined.
My hope would be that if we could get Holliday signed to 8/152, that Pujols would accept a 10/240 deal. If our payroll bumps to 110m in the next few years, that should be ample to field a competitive team.

[Eephus Speed]

It seems we all more or less agree wrt Holliday being the best option. So, is there a line we shouldn't cross? $140M/7yr? More?

They keep talking about Holliday wanting Texiera money.

By "they," I assume you mean Boras. Teixeira got what he got because he got it from the Yankees.

[Fat Strat]

Yeah, "they" = Boras... He's plural, I guess, lol. I think that Holliday would take less than that to come to the Cards if he had a different agent. He doesn't though, so we're stuck paying a premium for him.

[Eephus Speed]

Boras can and will do all he can to stir up speculation that Holliday commands X number of dollars over Y number of years. But, ultimately, it boils down to how much teams are willing to pay, what teams are involved and where Holliday wants to play.

[JL21]

I get what you're saying, but I can't get past the fact that this is just an 80 win core (with things breaking realistically). That's an assumption, of course, but it seems about right to me... Right enough that I'm willing to go with it for this conversation. 80 wins is a good core, really, but it's not a guarantee that we'll make the playoffs and it seems like it would be easier right now for that core to break the wrong way rather than improve. Ryan is potentially an offensive liability (if he isn't already). Skip is versatile, as you say, but he's mediocre everywhere and hardly a player that should be built around. Carp? Franklin? Lohse? All wildcards.

I tend to come from the other direction. Rasmus has loads of room to improve. Ludwick, Molina, and Skip have all established pretty reliable baselines. If anything, Lohse should improve- hampered by really fluky injuries, and wound up with his worst season as a SP since 2004. Ryan.... well, we'll see about Ryan. I'm mostly with you in that I think he's more likely to decline than improve. OTOH, you're jettisoning some 1260 AB's that went to Thurston, Barden, K. Greene, and Dunkiel. I know that those AB's won't soundly be replaced with superstars, but it's not unreasonable to expect a mild goose out of those AB's. You'd have to try hard to be worse than what that five-headed monster provided.