Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[JL21]

would Xavier Nady + John Lackey be > Matt Holliday?

Not that we would actually go get Lackey.

It'd be very, very close, and that's assuming that:

a) Nady hits the way he did in 2008, and not how he's hit the entire rest of his career

b) Lackey doesn't sustain any major injury. I like the guy a lot but he's missed little chunks of time each of the last two years following five straight 30+ GS seasons. He seems like a blowout waiting to happen.

But, as AW points out, it'd be a bit of a surprise if they went that route. The formula for years has been to go into the season with 2 or 3 reliable guys, and spackle in the rest/wait for the season to play out to fill in the last 2 spots. With Wainwright, Carpenter, and Lohse, I assume they'll gamble for the #4 and 5 slots.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

fortifying the starting rotation?

That sounds made up. You have two aces (albeit one fragile one) and Kyle Lohse. The Cardinals have rarely entered a season with 5 reliable starters.

If the Cards can't get Holliday and Bay resigns then they will have to do something to improve the club. Don't forget that we have 2 rotation spots open. We have to sign at least one starter and could easily sign two.

I agree they need to get better if they lose Holliday. It just seems highly unlikely that they will pursue another big name SP (ie, Lackey). Having 4 high price SP under contract through 2012 iirc does not fit their MO at all. For a while they have had 1-3 (good or bad) set and then a bunch of minor leaguers/rehab guys/journeymen in the 4-6/7 spots.

[robbotis]

Holliday is gone.
Just give Bay 5 years $90 million and then give Sheets 1 year w/ an option incentive based up to around $15 million. Sign De Rosa as a super sub.

[Socnorb11]

fortifying the starting rotation?

That sounds made up. You have two aces (albeit one fragile one) and Kyle Lohse. The Cardinals have rarely entered a season with 5 reliable starters.

If the Cards can't get Holliday and Bay resigns then they will have to do something to improve the club. Don't forget that we have 2 rotation spots open. We have to sign at least one starter and could easily sign two.

I agree they need to get better if they lose Holliday. It just seems highly unlikely that they will pursue another big name SP (ie, Lackey). Having 4 high price SP under contract through 2012 iirc does not fit their MO at all. For a while they have had 1-3 (good or bad) set and then a bunch of minor leaguers/rehab guys/journeymen in the 4-6/7 spots.

Has Mo been around long enough to have an "MO"?

I mean, the wheeling and dealing that they did at the trade deadline in 2009 wasn't exactly expected either

[Eephus Speed]

If the Cardinals plan on making one and only one offer, it'd better be good. At least 6 yrs, at least $17M per.

I hope we'd be willing to counter a reasonable offer from another club. Maybe not 180/8, but something like 126/7.

Just give Bay 5 years $90 million...

Please, please don't do that, Moz. Defense matters.

EDIT: And no Nady, who had his 2nd TJ surgery this year. The '08 miracle aside, he's barely above replacement level.

[JL21]

Has Mo been around long enough to have an "MO"?

Not Mozeliak, per se, but DeWitt has and the organizational philosophy has remained static throughout the DeWitt era. You point out that the 2009 approach wasn't expected but it's 100% in line with the way the Cardinals have been run for 10 to 15 years now. And Mozeliak was schooled heavily in that philosophy by Jocketty.

There are differences now compared to, say 2001 or 2002, but those are almost exclusively in scouting and player development.

[JL21]

At the end of the Strauss article:

Mozeliak said earlier this week that a failure to land Holliday may lead the club to fortify its rotation rather than trying to replace their cleanup hitter's production. Mozeliak indicated Wednesday that such an approach is unlikely to involve pursuing the market's top starting pitcher, John Lackey.

That's interesting. I guess I might have been wrong earlier.

The good thing here is that, with Schumaker's flexibility, the team's amount of free cash, and the flood of non-tenders that are about to hit the market, there won't be a shortage of options to improve.

[TimeForGuinness]

Just curious but if Holliday signs with someone else, don't we get 1st round draft picks?

Any idea on where we might be drafting given the teams interested in him?

[JL21]

Just curious but if Holliday signs with someone else, don't we get 1st round draft picks?

Any idea on where we might be drafting given the teams interested in him?

Yes, assuming they offer him arbitration. And they will.

If the signing team wasn't one of MLB's 15 worst teams in 2009, the Cardinals would get the signing team's first round pick (so, if it's the Yankees, they'd get the 30th choice in the 2010 draft), plus a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd round.

If the signing team WAS one of MLB's 15 worst teams in 2009, the Cardinals would get the signing team's second round pick, plus the sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd round.

So... if he leaves, the best option would probably be the Red Sox of the usual suspects likely to be in on signing him. The worst would be the Mets.

[Eephus Speed]

I like the guy a lot but he's missed little chunks of time each of the last two years following five straight 30+ GS seasons. He seems like a blowout waiting to happen.

That's how I feel. As good as he's been, I'd be very wary about signing Lackey to a big contract.

If we don't sign Holliday, I think patience is required. It's tempting to go after the other big names in free agency and to think our payroll has to be at a certain level come Spring Training, but what appears to be the next best option can be a disaster waiting to happen.

Look for stopgaps. Sign Cameron or DeRosa to a short-term contract. Give Craig a chance. Sign Smoltz and maybe Pavano to short-term contracts. Or Harden depending on the cost. And wait to see what unfolds between now and July.

Edit: And there's Ben Sheets: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... ben-sheets