OFFICIAL TLR HEAD SCRATCHER THREAD

[KeepingItCasual]

Down by one in the bottom of the 7th. Pinch hitting Pujols for Rasmus in the two hole.

[The Third Man]

Down by one in the bottom of the 7th. Pinch hitting Pujols for Rasmus in the two hole.

Gotta keep Ankiel's bat in the lineup so he can get right.

[jim]

The entire bottom of the 6th inning of the yesterday's game (6/16). Nine things there I didn't get.

And just when I thought I was really confused he pulls Motte (who he didn't PH for) to start the 7th. Yeah I know, Detroit PH a lefty and matchups. But still, you have a relief pitcher stinking it up at the plate trying to get a bunt down and you don't let him throw a pitch in the next inning?

Confusing.

[Fan_In_NY]

Down by one in the bottom of the 7th. Pinch hitting Pujols for Rasmus in the two hole.

Rasmus hits lefties like Ankiel hits in the clutch.

[jim]

I would give so much to shadow LaRussa for a couple of weeks to try to figure out how he has done what he has done.

[lukethedrifter]

Down by one in the bottom of the 7th. Pinch hitting Pujols for Rasmus in the two hole.

I thought it was not that weird. You almost guarantee AP 2 at bats in a close game. He sits out the hottest part of the game but still plays 1/3.

[skmsw]

I would give so much to shadow LaRussa for a couple of weeks to try to figure out how he has done what he has done.

Do you ever wonder if this just illustrates how little of an impact on outcomes managers actually have?

[Popeye_Card]

I would give so much to shadow LaRussa for a couple of weeks to try to figure out how he has done what he has done.

Maybe instead of a Three Nights In August movie, they should do Being Tony LaRussa.

[jim]

Up 3, runners on 1st and 2nd with Albert Pujols up and we sacrifice:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes ... 6160.shtml

[jim]

I would give so much to shadow LaRussa for a couple of weeks to try to figure out how he has done what he has done.

Do you ever wonder if this just illustrates how little of an impact on outcomes managers actually have?

What one individual really has a large impact on outcomes? Pujols, Bonds, etc... obviously, but if a player can cause a 2 game swing over 162 of a league average player you think he's really good. I don't know where managers fall in this range, but I really think they probably make as much difference at least as the 25th guy on the team.

I would love to shadow him to figure out where he is getting the advantage, because he seems to give back some during the games with his decisions yet he has a career winning percentage of .534. While that only puts him at 62nd on the alltime list, it's still above .500. I have to believe it's statistically significant ... meaning you don't win 53%+ of your games by random chance with that many tries.

My theories are:
1. He prepares so much better than everyone else that there is an edge that can't be directly seen watching the games. Shadowing him could help answer #1, but then I would have to shadow a bunch of other guys.

2. He is a motivator that for some mix of players is a net benefit.

3. He got lucky by getting hired at a very young age and his age combined with "The genius" label tagged to him by George Will (a guy I wouldn't trust at all with baseball opinions) he developed a reputation that may not have had to do much with his ability to change the outcomes of games. Teams don't hire guys with reputations like this without a commitment to winning, so consequently he has been blessed with a better than average talent pool because the teams are committed to winning. Perhaps his talent base has simply been at that 53% win level over his career, or maybe more.

Or maybe some combination of the above. I don't know honestly and I never will. I know he deserves to be in Cooperstown, I know we have had a great stretch with him managing. I guess that is all that is important.