maddash wrote:If the Braves go 6-6 the rest of the way, the Cardinals will have to go 12-1 (assuming they win today).
11-2 to force a tie.
which we win because we won the season series, right?
Eitherway, it looks like the Braves are starting to play good ball again.
As I understand it, the head-to-head record would actually give us home field advantage in a tie-breaker game against the Braves (this used to be determined by a coin toss).
Not 100% on that, but I think it's how it would all play out.
maddash wrote:If the Braves go 6-6 the rest of the way, the Cardinals will have to go 12-1 (assuming they win today).
11-2 to force a tie.
which we win because we won the season series, right?
Eitherway, it looks like the Braves are starting to play good ball again.
As I understand it, the head-to-head record would actually give us home field advantage in a tie-breaker game against the Braves (this used to be determined by a coin toss).
Not 100% on that, but I think it's how it would all play out.
Ah yes, you are correct. The head to head only matters for who gets WC when the tie is in the same division, so both teams are going to the playoffs anyway. The tie-breaker would be played similar to that of the Cubs-Giants in '98 and the Reds-Mets in '99.
maddash wrote:If the Braves go 6-6 the rest of the way, the Cardinals will have to go 12-1 (assuming they win today).
11-2 to force a tie.
which we win because we won the season series, right?
Eitherway, it looks like the Braves are starting to play good ball again.
As I understand it, the head-to-head record would actually give us home field advantage in a tie-breaker game against the Braves (this used to be determined by a coin toss).
Not 100% on that, but I think it's how it would all play out.
Ah yes, you are correct. The head to head only matters for who gets WC when the tie is in the same division, so both teams are going to the playoffs anyway. The tie-breaker would be played similar to that of the Cubs-Giants in '98 and the Reds-Mets in '99.
Correct, if the Cards and Braves tie, there would be a 1-game playoff in St. Louis to determine the wild card.
If stl goes 10-2 (92 wins), Atl needs to go 5-6 (91 wins) for us to get in (or 6-5 to force a playoff)
I thought schedules were posted in this thread. As of 9/17 (before games on that day):
Cards:
3 @ Phi
3 vs Nym
3 vs Chi
3 @ Hou
Atlanta:
2 vs Nym
3 @ Fla
3 @ Was
3 vs Phi
Its gonna be tough. I can see Atl winning 4 of 5 against Nym and Fla, and its possible Phi will play their kids in the last series. Need some luck and some more slumping from Atl.
lukethedrifter wrote:Up to an 8.8% chance. I wonder where we'd be if we hadn't blown that PITT game?
Or if we reversed that awful series against the Dodgers. I know there are other games that probably counted more, but that series with LA really stands out in my mind. That's where we dug the nearly insurmountable hole.
It's been a long time since we put on a late-season run like this; usually we get hot early and try to hang on, like 2006.
They were saying last night on ESPN that they flip-flopped Carpenter and Lohse in the rotation (Carp going Sunday, Lohse tonight) to be able to have Carp available to start two more times this season - this Friday against the Cubs, and next Wednesday, the season-closer, in Houston.
What this means, though, if we have to play a tie-breaker with Atlanta, that game would be started by Lohse on regular rest or Jackson on three days rest, with either Jackson or Garcia starting Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday, as Carp wouldn't be available until Monday (if there's a game that day) or Tuesday.
Perhaps what we should hope for is for us to clinch a playoff spot by Tuesday's Game 161, to where we can skip Carp's Wednesday start and save him for Game One. But of course I'm getting ahead of myself; it's going to be hard enough to make postseason without worrying about the postseason rotation.
JCShutout wrote:
If stl goes 9-1 (92 wins), Atl needs to go 4-5 (91 wins) for us to get in (or 5-4 to force a playoff)
Still close to impossible.
It is not probable but I don't think its close to impossible. We've gone 9-2, so we keep playing at that pace and 9-1 or 8-2 is not out of the question. Atlanta is 4-7 during the same stretch, that's equivalent to 3-6 the rest of the way. I think that is within the realm of possibility.
