Coronavirus

[Leroy]

I guess I don't know. If we are smart enough to do what we are told to do right now when it isn't terrible, I just don't see us forgetting everything and saying to hell with it when it gets worse.

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I guess I don't know. If we are smart enough to do what we are told to do right now when it isn't terrible, I just don't see us forgetting everything and saying to hell with it when it gets worse.

That and by the end of Apriul they better have figured out how to diseminate and administer testing in an effective way. Christ, they are already doing it in some small 3rd World countries. If we can't do it, I guess that makes us the largest 3rd World country.

Great again indeed.

[a_smith]

Are there any statisticians on the board that can kind of parse the numbers? USA, in general, looks like a complete [expletive] show. I think they may have finally slown down from the 1.33x gains in total cases they were making every day, but not by much. At the same time, there seem to be quite a few states past the n=100 mark that are well below the 1.33x line while other states (NY in particular) was well above it for a while. And, honestly, NY is driving the USA numbers accounting for almost half.

In short, don't know if I said it or not, but this is going to turn into each state making decisions and each city within the state making further, more stringent decisions, as necessary (like San Francisco going to SIP before CA).

Not to get political, and I don't think this is...I certainly don't mean it as a criticism/praise, just a general observation. Trump says he wants to re-open the economy. But, it's not really his decision. Sure, he could lift the national state of emergency, but the states will still keep theirs especially after seeing how little help the feds can provide. If the economy is going to reopen, at a minimum, the capacity of the healthcare system has to be expanded orders of magnitude overnight to accomodate all those that will require treatment. The hydroxychloriquine zpack is not nothing, but hydroxychloriquine has some serious side effects (including cardiac arrest) so it's not like there's a magic pill.

At the same time, at some point, even if its 6 months down the road, the world does have to open back up. How do we go about doing that if only, say, 10-25% of the nation got the virus and has immunity. It gets back to the fact that preventing outbreaks would require testing which may come available, but in order to do it properly would require tracking....something the citizens of America certainly won't be comfortable with. In short, IDK. There has to be answer, but I don't know what it is.

Tracking is better than dying. Tracking is better than trusting idiots to not infect you. Sign me up for tracking rather than death.

The problem with parsing the numbers right now is that we have no clue how many people have it. People with obvious symptoms are not getting tested. I know of at least a dozen people just in my social media circle that have all the symptoms but they cannot get a test because there are not enough tests. They would need to get really, really bad to get the tests.

We need massive doses of tests.
The freaking UK is rolling out a test at home kit. We don't have enough to test our medical personal. This is horrible.

After we get tests to see who has it, we need to be able to get tests for immunity so that we can find out all the people who had it but didn't show up in the other tests.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

There are a lot of ways this could go, obviously. The one I worry about the most is that the cities and more, let's say, aggressive states that initiated SIP see their numbers decline by early May, leading to pressure to open back up. Meanwhile, the rural areas and non-aggressive states will have a later peak due to their refusal/failure to take necessary quarantine measures. There aren't many hospitals in these areas, and people don't like dying, so they relocate to the urban hospitals and create a second flood to overwhelm our healthcare system and healthcare workers, many of whom by this point will have gotten it too. In this scenario, there will be no re-opening for America of businesses, schools, sports, etc. In this scenario 30% unemployment is conservative. Also, the death toll is millions, plural.

I actually get the feeling that mayors and governors across america have a reassuring grasp on what their infrastructure is capable of and how that infrastructure will be challenged in the coming weeks/months. Armed with that information, they're making policies/decisions. And, I don't get the feeling that even after the first wave they're going to jeopardize their infrastructure. I've been wrong before, but it almost feels like when the governors had the conference call with the white house, the white house said, "you're on your own, good luck" and governors informed mayors and as soon as a case popped up, everything shut down.

Like I said, I'd love to see a statistical analysis of all the individual states infections rates compared to each other. And, when each state did what and how that affected the infection rates.

[Felix The Cat]

I'm not sure how useful statistical analysis/comparisons will be when you have incomplete data. Best case, you can't reach a meaningful conclusion. Worst case, you draw the wrong conclusion.

I guess I don't know. If we are smart enough to do what we are told to do right now when it isn't terrible, I just don't see us forgetting everything and saying to hell with it when it gets worse.

That and by the end of Apriul they better have figured out how to diseminate and administer testing in an effective way. Christ, they are already doing it in some small 3rd World countries. If we can't do it, I guess that makes us the largest 3rd World country.

Great again indeed.

It boils down to a supply/logistics issue. There's a shortage of the viral media used to collect the samples needed for testing right now. Even with more labs able to run the test, the supply bottleneck prevents us from doing large scale testing that we need.

The country as a whole was not prepared for a pandemic. Having nearly everything made in one foreign country was probably a mistake. Not having a good contingency plan when said supply is disrupted was a mistake. Not reacting quickly enough to ramp up our own production of this stuff and PPE was a mistake.

[JCShutout]

There are a lot of ways this could go, obviously. The one I worry about the most is that the cities and more, let's say, aggressive states that initiated SIP see their numbers decline by early May, leading to pressure to open back up. Meanwhile, the rural areas and non-aggressive states will have a later peak due to their refusal/failure to take necessary quarantine measures. There aren't many hospitals in these areas, and people don't like dying, so they relocate to the urban hospitals and create a second flood to overwhelm our healthcare system and healthcare workers, many of whom by this point will have gotten it too. In this scenario, there will be no re-opening for America of businesses, schools, sports, etc. In this scenario 30% unemployment is conservative. Also, the death toll is millions, plural.

This is literally what I think will happen. Hoping it won't, but I just can't see us making the best, short term economic painful, but good, longer term decisions.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Let me ask this question, which governors do you think will go against their state's dept of health advice and re-open a state before it is ready?

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I'm not sure how useful statistical analysis/comparisons will be when you have incomplete data. Best case, you can't reach a meaningful conclusion. Worst case, you draw the wrong conclusion.

I guess I don't know. If we are smart enough to do what we are told to do right now when it isn't terrible, I just don't see us forgetting everything and saying to hell with it when it gets worse.

That and by the end of Apriul they better have figured out how to diseminate and administer testing in an effective way. Christ, they are already doing it in some small 3rd World countries. If we can't do it, I guess that makes us the largest 3rd World country.

Great again indeed.

It boils down to a supply/logistics issue. There's a shortage of the viral media used to collect the samples needed for testing right now. Even with more labs able to run the test, the supply bottleneck prevents us from doing large scale testing that we need.

The country as a whole was not prepared for a pandemic. Having nearly everything made in one foreign country was probably a mistake. Not having a good contingency plan when said supply is disrupted was a mistake. Not reacting quickly enough to ramp up our own production of this stuff and PPE was a mistake.

I'd disagree comparing the first 7 days post n=100 is incomplete when you have multiple states with 7 days of data post n=100 and multiple nations outside of the USA as well.

Regardless, it would be great if this served as a wakeup call to this point. Manufacturing jobs may not be the way of the future, but it is certainly a vital service to have in times of need. Relying on the rest of the world to make our trinkets and stuff is fine; but relying on them to make critical items is probably not. America would be well suited to figure out a way to increase manufacturing and paying livable wages while doing so.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Are there any statisticians on the board that can kind of parse the numbers? USA, in general, looks like a complete [expletive] show. I think they may have finally slown down from the 1.33x gains in total cases they were making every day, but not by much. At the same time, there seem to be quite a few states past the n=100 mark that are well below the 1.33x line while other states (NY in particular) was well above it for a while. And, honestly, NY is driving the USA numbers accounting for almost half.

In short, don't know if I said it or not, but this is going to turn into each state making decisions and each city within the state making further, more stringent decisions, as necessary (like San Francisco going to SIP before CA).

Not to get political, and I don't think this is...I certainly don't mean it as a criticism/praise, just a general observation. Trump says he wants to re-open the economy. But, it's not really his decision. Sure, he could lift the national state of emergency, but the states will still keep theirs especially after seeing how little help the feds can provide. If the economy is going to reopen, at a minimum, the capacity of the healthcare system has to be expanded orders of magnitude overnight to accomodate all those that will require treatment. The hydroxychloriquine zpack is not nothing, but hydroxychloriquine has some serious side effects (including cardiac arrest) so it's not like there's a magic pill.

At the same time, at some point, even if its 6 months down the road, the world does have to open back up. How do we go about doing that if only, say, 10-25% of the nation got the virus and has immunity. It gets back to the fact that preventing outbreaks would require testing which may come available, but in order to do it properly would require tracking....something the citizens of America certainly won't be comfortable with. In short, IDK. There has to be answer, but I don't know what it is.

Tracking is better than dying. Tracking is better than trusting idiots to not infect you. Sign me up for tracking rather than death.

The problem with parsing the numbers right now is that we have no clue how many people have it. People with obvious symptoms are not getting tested. I know of at least a dozen people just in my social media circle that have all the symptoms but they cannot get a test because there are not enough tests. They would need to get really, really bad to get the tests.

We need massive doses of tests.
The freaking UK is rolling out a test at home kit. We don't have enough to test our medical personal. This is horrible.

After we get tests to see who has it, we need to be able to get tests for immunity so that we can find out all the people who had it but didn't show up in the other tests.

Not disagreeing, just saying it's not going to happen. Tracking isn't. Antigen tests aren't. Testing for the disease isn't going to increase. I mean, yeah, they should. But they won't.

[BottenFieldofDreams]

Portland has two alt-weeklys that were already struggling. One had gone to bi-weekly. But because everything's cancelled: shows, bars, food: they have no revenue. It all came from those ads. I hope at least one of them makes it. I don't have real big problems with The Oregonian (it definitely sucks a lot more in the current state of clickbait media), but I think the counter culture voice is important. However, it's also a voice that will find a way out one way or another.

Interesting impact of COVID.