EastonBlues22 wrote:GatewaySnayke wrote:skmsw wrote:If it is true that we're sending $3 to $4mm along with Scotty, then I'm guessing we're getting the less damaged of the two.
Or Ricciardi knows something we don't know.
This trade makes Toronto look stupid, wouldn't you say? They are trading away a "perfectly healthy" and still productive, still relatively young player for a guy with an alleged chronic shoulder injury. It brings them only small cap relief and gets rid of a guy who they could still use, since they aren't overflowing with great hitters.
That's why I have to raise my eyebrows at this deal. This must be what it was like to be an A's fan on December 30, 2004. "They are trading all of THAT for a guy who might be hurt? What's the catch?"
There was a short debate somewhere between pages 10 and 20 (I think) about whether Rolen or Glaus was the better bet rebound in health next year. It didn't make it very far, because most people just seem to be taking it for granted that Glaus is going to be healthy and productive next year.
I'm not interested in rehashing the entire thing...lets just say that I'm one of the ones who's skeptical that Glaus is a good bet to be healthy the next two years. I'm also
slightly skeptical of the opinions that healthy feet are *much* less necessary for athletic production than a healthy shoulder, and that foot problems are *much* easier to overcome than shoulder problems...but, to each his own. It's an ultimately an opinion (regardless of how educated or uneducated it might be), and it's in no way worth getting bent out of shape over. With that said, here's my take (on Glaus, not Rolen...that's been beaten to death already):
Troy Glaus is 6'5'' ~250 lbs and he's having painful and persistent problems with his feet. A person that size is always going to put a lot of stress on his joints and feet when he moves...in my opinion, this isn't something that's likely to go away quitely. If the condition remains or gets worse, then you're facing a whole host of potential problems...both with his feet, and with other parts of his body as it attempts to compensate (his back for one, which
is rather important for hitting).
This isn't the AL...if his feet go, his range in the field goes, his speed goes on the basepaths goes, etc. Remember Pujols hobbling around the field with his foot problems? For a scary scenario, think of a slightly more mobile version of Frank Thomas (with a much worse bat) attempting to play 3B. I'm not saying it is likely he'll get to that point in the next two years (or even at all)...but the point is that it wouldn't take nearly that much for his production (both on offense and on defense), as well as his playing time, to take a hit. All that, and we've also been ignoring the fact that his power (the one outstanding thing he brings to the table) has been trending down dignificantly since his shoulder surgeries.
For your speculation...
Adjusted as accurately as possible with ESPN's park factors:
Glaus hit one double every 4.49 hits prior to shoulder surgery. Post shoulder surgeries one per 5.13. Last year with foot problems one per 5.63.
Glaus hit one homerun every 3.48 hits prior to shoulder surgery. Post shoulder surgeries one per 4.37. Last year with foot problems one per 5.94.
The last few years New Busch has strongly supressed both HRs and doubles. Glaus' parks over the previous three years in TOR and ARI have all been favorable to both. The bottom line: Don't be surprised if Glaus' power numbers take a decent hit while he's here...all the signs are pointing that way.
His defense is all over the map depending on which metric you use, so I won't even bother with numbers. Lets just say that it's currently somewhere between "poor" and "average-ish," and it is not likely to improve any as he continues to age...especially if he has recurring foot problems.
As you can probably tell, I'm not especially rosy about Glaus' upcoming stay here. I don't expect anyone else to be as "pessimistic" as a few of us are about the trade, but I think there's (at the very least) plenty of reason to temper any extreme optimism that might exist regarding Glaus' health and power prospects down to a more cautiously optimistic level.
EDIT: Fixed a couple of typos and edited a bit for clarity.
