Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[Fan_In_NY]

I know this is going to sound bitter, paranoid, or both -- but I can feel the damn Yankees lying in the weeds waiting to sign Holliday or Bay.

I'm very skeptical that they resign Damon or Matsui. Those two contracts free up some $26mm per year. They need a left fielder, and their M.O. is to quietly deny interest at the beginning, never be heard from again, and then swoop in at the very end by saying "OK, what's the best offer you've gotten so far? We'll top it by 10% right now, you have 48 hours to think it over, after that the offer is retracted, we go in a different direction, and publicly announce that you will not be coming here."

I completely agree. My only reservation is that they might have to make decisions on Damon and Matsui before they would get around to going after Holliday. Isn't the arbitration deadline before the winter meetings? I realize that the Yankees live in a different financial plane than what I'm used to dealing with, but I can't see them offering arb to those guys (especially Matsui) and then going after Holliday.

That and at some point they have to say enough is enough with the spending. They just won the world series. They just made a huge FA splash last season to get themselves into standing as "best team in the world". They're not a bottomless source of money. They don't have any real reason to drop another $20 million into another top FA player when $10-$15 million would do just as well.

You also have to consider that maybe they were relying on losing Matsui and Damon to help fund that half a billion dollar spending spree from last off season.

But they also have postseason revenue, increased revenue from the new stadium and higher than last year TV ratings because they will be coming off the World Series. Money is not an issue at all.

[Socnorb11]

Do the Yankees "really" need outfield help that badly? Won't Shelley Duncan fill a role next year (.916 OPS at Triple A last year). Who else do they have?

[JL21]

Do the Yankees "really" need outfield help that badly? Won't Shelley Duncan fill a role next year (.916 OPS at Triple A last year). Who else do they have?

Shelly Duncan is 30 years old and has accumulated 163 PA's in his career. He's their John Gall. Or at best, John Rodriguez.

Damon and Matsui amassed 1140+ PA's last season, and it'll need to be replaced by someone. That may be Damon or Matsui themselves or it could just as easily be a free agent that makes them better (Holliday or Bay).

I'm not sure what they have on the farm in terms of OF prospects but they've never been an organization that's big on giving kids a chance to drown, at least not since the mid-90's.

[skmsw]

All the same, I don't think that discounts the Cardinals or any other team for that matter.

It doesn't discount the Cards one bit -- BUT if you have a player (not saying Holliday is, but *if* you have a player) who is mainly looking for the best offer -- then the Yanks coming in at the end and offering that extra 10%, that 7th or 8th year, etc -- is the deal-breaker.

My only reservation is that they might have to make decisions on Damon and Matsui before they would get around to going after Holliday. Isn't the arbitration deadline before the winter meetings?

They already know what they are going to do (or not do) with Damon, Matsui, and Nady. If I had to guess, I'd say they offer arb to Damon and not the other two -- but whatever they offer and whoever accepts, it will not change their plans around Bay or Holliday. If they want to fill a hole in LF with a younger, sexier player, they'll do it, and they'll do it payroll-neutral by letting two or three of those three go.

That and at some point they have to say enough is enough with the spending. They just won the world series. They just made a huge FA splash last season to get themselves into standing as "best team in the world". They're not a bottomless source of money. They don't have any real reason to drop another $20 million into another top FA player when $10-$15 million would do just as well.

<sigh> unfortunately this is simply incorrect. If the Yankees have a hole to fill, they will fill it with the best player they can find. If they are $30mm under budget, and there is a $20mm player who can fill their only hole, why wouldn't they?

Holy crap.... just out of dumb curiosity, I looked it up. According to ESPN, los Banditos Yanquis dropped $208M- TWO HUNDRED AND EIGHT MILLION!!!- on payroll last year. You could pay the A's, Pirates, Padres, Marlins, and about 90% of the Orioles with that much money.

They also (potentially) shed Damon ($13M), Matsui ($13M), and Nady ($6.5M).

Yep, I'm pretty sure they've gone stretches with an annualized payroll of about $220mm.

But they also have postseason revenue, increased revenue from the new stadium and higher than last year TV ratings because they will be coming off the World Series. Money is not an issue at all.

Do the Yankees "really" need outfield help that badly? Won't Shelley Duncan fill a role next year (.916 OPS at Triple A last year). Who else do they have?

The Yankees want to take a page from the Sox playbook and get younger. they are not going to return Damon or Matsui in everyday full-time roles; maybe one of them on a one-year contract as DH. I'll be really, really surprised if they do not make a play for Holliday or Bay -- and doing it in exactly the fashion I described above: once the market is set, blow it away with significantly more dollars or more years, give a couple days to think about it or else walk, and threaten to make a firm commitment NOT to sign the player so they can't be used to drive up offers elsewhere.

[Faceman]

Shelley Duncan?

We expect the Yanks to roll out Shelley Duncan every day?

[clevername]

they have Austin Jackson in their system and keep touting him as a future OF guy. He was involved in the Johan talks some.

But, yeah, if they decide they want Holliday they'll write the check. We just have to hope they decide that they don't want him.

[JL21]

They'd have to be crazier than a rat in a tin [expletive]-house to offer arbitration to Nady.

[Eephus Speed]

There's no reason why the Yankees can't sign Holliday and keep either Damon or Matsui to be their DH. If the Yankees want Holliday and Holliday is willing to play for the Yankees, goodbye Holliday.

Even if nobody tops our highest offer, there's no guarantee that Holliday will sign with us. Maybe the Giants or Braves or Mets or Red Sox make a similar offer and appeal to him more.

[Fat Strat]

<sigh> unfortunately this is simply incorrect. If the Yankees have a hole to fill, they will fill it with the best player they can find. If they are $30mm under budget, and there is a $20mm player who can fill their only hole, why wouldn't they?

Wow. You're right. I didn't think of the money that they potentially have coming off the books with Damon, etc. They legitimately could bring in Holliday and actually cut payroll. What a ludicrous thought.

But, hey, we have texts from AW. Top that Steinbrenner!

[Eephus Speed]

Holy crap.... just out of dumb curiosity, I looked it up. According to ESPN, los Banditos Yanquis dropped $208M- TWO HUNDRED AND EIGHT MILLION!!!- on payroll last year. You could pay the A's, Pirates, Padres, Marlins, and about 90% of the Orioles with that much money.

They also (potentially) shed Damon ($13M), Matsui ($13M), and Nady ($6.5M).

I like to think of it this way: there are 7 teams that spend less money than the difference between the NYY payroll and the next highest payroll. According to this: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/salaries (Cot's does have different numbers--they say the NYM payroll is up around $150M).

They also potentially shed Pettitte's ($5.5M) contract, though I would expect them to re-sign him.