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I'm pretty sure those are the number of electoral votes and not the polling margin.Richie Allen wrote:I was about to say that the most surprising to me on that map is VA +13 and NC +15 for Obama. I'd also be surprised if MO went that strongly for McCain.
Well, with the exception of a week or so after the RNC, Obama has been pretty consistently ahead of McCain by 5 to 10 points nationwide. There hasn't been a lot of back and forth. And the speculation has been that the young vote, which appears to be as enthusiastic as it's ever been, is possibly not very well represented in a lot of these polls.KyCardinalFan wrote:There is way too much time to think this election is going to Obama. If these surveys were the Wednesday before the election, maybe. Too many debates and too many weeks left in the campaign to allow anything to happen. One world event and opinions go Republican.
Not to mention, Obama is bolstered by the young person vote - the worst reliable voting record of any age group.
You're correct, AD. My mistake.Arthur Dent wrote:I'm pretty sure those are the number of electoral votes and not the polling margin.Richie Allen wrote:I was about to say that the most surprising to me on that map is VA +13 and NC +15 for Obama. I'd also be surprised if MO went that strongly for McCain.
In advance of her debate against Joe Biden tonight, Palin now looks more like a drag than
a boost to the GOP ticket: Thirty-two percent of registered voters say her selection makes
them less likely to support John McCain for president, up from 19 percent last month.
Her basic ratings are weaker still. Just 35 percent say Palin has the experience it takes to
serve effectively as president, down a dozen points since early September; 60 percent
think not, up 15. And just 46 percent think Palin “understands complex issues,” while 49
percent think she doesn’t – a poor assessment on this most basic qualification.
Biden’s ratings starkly contrast Palin’s: Seventy-five percent say he understands complex
issues, 70 percent say he has suitable experience to take over as president if necessary
and just 13 percent say his selection makes them less apt to support Barack Obama.
The clip froze up, so I didn't get to see it all, but Olbermann's bias is so strong that I take any information from him with unhealthy amounts of salt. I am cautiously optimistic.haltz wrote:On Countdown, Nate Silver estimated that Obama is 80% to win the election at this point.
Here's the clip as well as a longer piece with Dan Rather talking politics and baseball. Some interesting stuff there.
Any national security event makes people turn to the Republicans. A terrorist's video threatening the U.S., an attack on U.S. interests or - heaven forbid - an attack on the U.S. and opinion sways to the experience guy.Richie Allen wrote:Well, with the exception of a week or so after the RNC, Obama has been pretty consistently ahead of McCain by 5 to 10 points nationwide. There hasn't been a lot of back and forth. And the speculation has been that the young vote, which appears to be as enthusiastic as it's ever been, is possibly not very well represented in a lot of these polls.KyCardinalFan wrote:There is way too much time to think this election is going to Obama. If these surveys were the Wednesday before the election, maybe. Too many debates and too many weeks left in the campaign to allow anything to happen. One world event and opinions go Republican.
Not to mention, Obama is bolstered by the young person vote - the worst reliable voting record of any age group.
Not sure what you mean by "one world event and opinions go Republican."
That was also the time of the Palin VP selection and Republican convention which I think likely had more impact than the situation in Georgia, but I do agree that there is no reason to be complacent about the outcome and that things could still turn around before election day.KyCardinalFan wrote:Look at the "Super Tracker" chart at the link Haltz posted. That dip toward McCain in early September was during the Georgia invasion and when people were reminded of 9/11/01. Then it skyrockets for Obama when McCain says the fundamentals of the economy were sound.