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ghostrunner wrote:I'm skeptical that black voters and first time voters are well accounted for in these polls, so I'm wondering if Obama isn't being understimated in the polls at this point. Particularly in the South.

Nate Silver said they try and take that stuff into account when they do their projections, but it's a lot of guesswork obviously.

I don't know how many people here are near Cincy, but there's an Obama rally there next Thursday. I mention it primarily because the National and the Breeders will be putting on a free show. I'd go if I was free.

More new lows in polling. Gallup has recorded it's lowest ever figure for national satisfaction -- 9%. The previous low was 12% in 1979 during the gas crisis.

haltz wrote:

ghostrunner wrote:I'm skeptical that black voters and first time voters are well accounted for in these polls, so I'm wondering if Obama isn't being understimated in the polls at this point. Particularly in the South.

Nate Silver said they try and take that stuff into account when they do their projections, but it's a lot of guesswork obviously.

Yeah, and those voters (well, young ones at least, I don't know about blacks) are the least reliable voting block. If they have anything better to do that day they'll miss voting.

We're still a ways out but I actually think it's going to be a tad closer than what the polls are projecting, if everything stays the same. It seemed like in the last few elections that conservatives performed better than the pre-election polls (not that the conservatives won, just that the many of the election results leaned a little more right than the pre-polls). Of course, the pollsters take all that into account and might have adjusted their formulas more. So, it could swing the other way.

All in all, from what I've heard, this has been one of the toughest elections to poll because of the atypical candidates - a black presidential candidate, a white conservative VP. There's a lot of educated guesswork going on right now as they readily admit.

haltz wrote:

ghostrunner wrote:I'm skeptical that black voters and first time voters are well accounted for in these polls, so I'm wondering if Obama isn't being understimated in the polls at this point. Particularly in the South.

Nate Silver said they try and take that stuff into account when they do their projections, but it's a lot of guesswork obviously.

I'm not sure that's true. He wrote a short article on Georgia earlier saying that if they there is greater black turnout, Obama would likely outperform his projections. He's also written about young voters who, despite being unreliable, did turn up to vote in the primaries, but at this point I believe he is just using the pollster's "likely voter" models to determine at what level they will turn out.

It might be close nationally, but it's not looking close on the electoral map. But that could certainly change.

Take race out of the equation and I can't help but wonder if they are even within 20 points of each other.

Fat Strat wrote:

haltz wrote:

ghostrunner wrote:I'm skeptical that black voters and first time voters are well accounted for in these polls, so I'm wondering if Obama isn't being understimated in the polls at this point. Particularly in the South.

Nate Silver said they try and take that stuff into account when they do their projections, but it's a lot of guesswork obviously.

Yeah, and those voters (well, young ones at least, I don't know about blacks) are the least reliable voting block. If they have anything better to do that day they'll miss voting.

We're still a ways out but I actually think it's going to be a tad closer than what the polls are projecting, if everything stays the same. It seemed like in the last few elections that conservatives performed better than the pre-election polls (not that the conservatives won, just that the many of the election results leaned a little more right than the pre-polls). Of course, the pollsters take all that into account and might have adjusted their formulas more. So, it could swing the other way.

All in all, from what I've heard, this has been one of the toughest elections to poll because of the atypical candidates - a black presidential candidate, a white conservative VP. There's a lot of educated guesswork going on right now as they readily admit.

I agree with the polls tightening, they almost always do as election day nears closer.

One of the reasons Bush performed better than the pre-election polls is due to the fact he had a vastly superior ground game, which now Obama has in this election.

Stupid guy asks: What do you mean by ground game?

Fat Strat wrote:Yeah, and those voters (well, young ones at least, I don't know about blacks) are the least reliable voting block. If they have anything better to do that day they'll miss voting.

Well, there certainly hasn't been much for the young voter be excited about in years past. I think it would be a mistake to assume that this time around.