GatewayRedbirds.com

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=9778

Need a subscription to read the whole thing... the final result says Bay is worth about $3-5M less per year than Holliday.

It seemed very recently that when the SABR community couldn't get their hands around defense they basically ignored it and pretended it didn't matter. Now it's UZR and FRAA etc... and which are now used to come up with detailed assessments of a players value. I'm not sure I trust those defensive metrics so much, but I am glad to see that the SABR community finally had a "No duh" moment and decided that catching the ball actually means something tangible.

Baserunning is ignored as far as I can tell, so I guess that's the final frontier.

Richie Allen wrote:I don't giving a flying [expletive] if the money we spend on a free agent I want to see signed is considered by someone else to be a certain % over their market value based on some game they've made up counting runs or wins or some other nonsense.

On what do you base your desire to see certain players signed? If not stats, then what? Or is it just certain stats that you dislike? If so, what stats do you like and how do you determine what a player with those stats is worth? Don't you have to care about what they're worth? Afterall, the FO has a budget (set by ownership) and needs to get the most bang for their buck.

jim wrote:http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=9778

Need a subscription to read the whole thing... the final result says Bay is worth about $3-5M less per year than Holliday.

It seemed very recently that when the SABR community couldn't get their hands around defense they basically ignored it and pretended it didn't matter. Now it's UZR and FRAA etc... and which are now used to come up with detailed assessments of a players value. I'm not sure I trust those defensive metrics so much, but I am glad to see that the SABR community finally had a "No duh" moment and decided that catching the ball actually means something tangible.

Baserunning is ignored as far as I can tell, so I guess that's the final frontier.

FanGraphs would say Bay is worth about $10-15M less per year.

A bit about baserunning: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... ses-part-2

Rotoworld:

Angels owner Arte Moreno has ruled out signing Matt Holliday, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com.

While Holliday's asking price may be too high, Moreno would consider signing Jason Bay if the club is unable to retain John Lackey, Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero land elsewhere. Bay is comparable to Holliday, however he is expected to earn less on the open market.
Source: Jon Paul Morosi on Twitter
Related: Jason Bay

Abreu and Vlad are both DH material, so I don't see why the Angels would even be considering Vlad.

Vlad will come cheap, and he used to be one of the best 5 tool players in the game. I honestly wouldn't mind Vlad on the Cardinals, if we can get a decent price for him. I say if we do put him in right and trade Ludwick and maybe Schumaker to the Rays to get in the Carl Crawford trade sweepstakes.

If Vlad can no longer play in the field, he's of no use to us.

This is what I can gather about the preliminary interest in Holliday so far; some of it is fact (quotes), some of it is speculation I'm fairly confident about:

Angels:
According to owner Arte Moreno:

He is not going to be an Angel. We are not looking at Holliday at all.

Giants:
San Francisco Gate newspaper:

We talked to GM Brian Sabean, who said he has not contacted agents for the two big hitters on the free-agent market, Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, and does not expect to either.

Yankees:
Jason Stark and Buster Onley have both indicated that the Yankees are probably not planning on making a run at Holliday, or at least not at the moment. The reason being is two-fold: number one, they're already going to bring back either Damon or Matsui (with a preference to Damon), and number two, they have Austin Jackson (an outfielder / top-50 prospect) waiting in the wings.

Mets:
Mets will at least put their toe in the water and try and feel out the situation. At this point, there seems to be a lot of varying views on whether the Mets will be a real player for a premier free agent this offseason or not.

Red Sox:
Supposedly have strong interest in bringing back Jason Bay. Being that he recently rejected their in-the-neighborhood-of-$60 million four-year offer, I think there's a realistic chance of him not returning. If Bay goes elsewhere, I envision them setting their sights on Holliday and outbidding everyone else.


So, in summary, I really think that Holliday's fate hinges on what the Red Sox do. And, unfortunately, I think they'll end up signing him.

A couple of real important points to make on top of all of this:
1. First, we have no idea how accurate this information is. Teams could just be intentionally leaking inaccurate information to throw agents / competing teams.
2. Even if these are the actual views of teams, they're far from being set in stone.

Public comments from owners and/or GM's are quite credible. I'd bet that at least one of these owners is using this as a very diplomatic way to tell Boras to take a flying leap..

Stark and Buster are usually pretty good on this stuff.

I'm still not sure the Mets are smart enough to make a play here.

My nightmare scenario is that the new Cub ownership might have the good sense to dust off the tactic that landed Andre Dawson and slide a signed contract across the table and allow Holliday/Boras to fill in the amount and the term.

Radio_Bugtussle wrote:Public comments from owners and/or GM's are quite credible. I'd bet that at least one of these owners is using this as a very diplomatic way to tell Boras to take a flying leap..

Stark and Buster are usually pretty good on this stuff.

I'm still not sure the Mets are smart enough to make a play here.

My nightmare scenario is that the new Cub ownership might have the good sense to dust off the tactic that landed Andre Dawson and slide a signed contract across the table and allow Holliday/Boras to fill in the amount and the term.

Do you really think the Cubs could find a taker for Soriano?