Coronavirus

[sighyoung]

[JCShutout]

We are doing okay. Work closed 2 weeks ago today, though we are getting paid for at least a month from then. I think we'll continue with some pay, because we are working some at home, though far more limited. Won't know until they tell us.

I've been working out twice a day... well, I've been rucking in the mornings for 75-90min. I used to go to the park, but now too many people are there who don't care about social distancing, so I just go through the neighborhood, and I go as soon as the sun is up to avoid the most people. Then a regular workout in the evening, sometimes walks with the wife in the neighborhood mid day. We are having taekwondo classes 4x/week via zoom, and its going better than I expected. All the exercising makes up for the extra nervous snacking which is happening.

Otherwise LOTS of big projects. Built a firewood holder for the backyard (had bought supplies in the Fall, just needed an empty few days to make it), did a full day's worth of yardwork/spring prep/trimming/weeding, raking, etc, pulled out every single paperworky paper we had, organized, shreaded, purged, etc and put back into awesome organization. (Took 3 days... well, 3 4 hour days)

Today I went to the store for the first time since a week and a half ago. I was nervous about it all week. Went to 3 places because my wife has a health condition (making her higher risk for this) that requires a certain diet, and a few things can only be found at fancy stores like Fresh Thyme and Trader Joe's. Went to Schnucks super early, but mixed up senior hour. They said they wouldn't ask questions, but I didn't want to be a dick so I just went for a walk until senior hour was over, then went to the 3 places. (All luckily opened to non-seniors an hour apart). Stocked up on dry/canned for a month and fresh for 2 weeks to try and limit how much I have to go out again. (Just for some veggies in a couple of weeks as long as we time our cooking right - broccoli, brussels sprouts keep in the fridge for a good while before turning, carrots even longer, and onions and sweet potatoes keep a long time) Disinfected or washed everything that went into a fridge or freezer, and dry/canned stuff is in a quarintine section of the house until Saturday evening.Then disinfected the area where I disinfected everything, threw my clothes in the wash and myself in the shower. LONG ASS DAY, and now I'm procrastinating instead of doing a little work. (I have done a few hours worth though)

I'm actually not nervous for myself. I'm young and very healthy, but my wife, and others around me, may not be. I don't want to spread the problem as the peak is on its way.

That said, I'm in general good spirits because I'm usually too busy to mess around online, and the extra time at home with the wife is amazing. I'd be really good at retirement... that said, I did waste one entire morning arguing with someone on facebook, having to eventually block them when they were harassing a nurse friend who works in an ER that is now a dedicated covid19 unit... she picked up the mantle for me (arguing) when I had to go do more productive things and it got ugly.

I've had a few days where I'm just sad/melancholy, or gotten suddenly short over things which aren't a big deal. I'm an introvert, so social distancing isn't all that different from my normal life (work and tkd are where I interact with people the most), but it is still tough.

I want to be more helpful, like join the group who deliver supplies to infected folks so they can quarantine, but with my wife being high risk, I don't want to risk bringing anything home. I did a lot of buying and delivering for a couple of shelters early, but since my last trip to the store, hadn't left the house aside from walks and rucks until today.

[tlombard]

I did waste one entire morning arguing with someone on facebook, having to eventually block them when they were harassing a nurse friend who works in an ER that is now a dedicated covid19 unit... she picked up the mantle for me (arguing) when I had to go do more productive things and it got ugly.

I have inserted myself into a few FB spats recently as well. Thankfully they haven't gotten nasty. The GF comes from a very conservative family and some of them (and family friends) have been replying to things she shares on Facebook and not been very nice. I've only gotten involved a couple of times but when I do, things have ended quickly and nothing has gotten too nasty. I prefer to stay out of arguments on there but sometimes it is fun. I just present facts, with citations, that deal DIRECTLY with what they are BS'ing about and that generally causes them to lose interest. She finally did have to block one family friend though because he was a complete arse. She posted a couple of simple facts and he started going on about how she was belittling Trump. She never even mentioned Trump. Of course I then pointed it out that she didn't belittle anybody, only stated facts and never mentioned Trump so he asked me if I was always a douche bag or just that night. I just replied with "LOL" and then he decided that I'm always a douche bag. That's when she had enough and blocked him.

I have scored some points with her by coming to her defense though, the first time I was 'her hero' and the next time 'defending her with logic and facts is so hot' so I have a feeling that I'm going to get sucked into a real big FB fight before long. But if I'm stuck at home, what else do I have to do?

[Jocephus]

[JCShutout]

This guy thinks he does what you are doing. He "refutes" things with "logic, facts and math", but when you challenge those facts and math and show other models, he just shrugs it off with the equivalent of "nuh uh!", reiterates his "facts" and argues about how he's using math and facts and the rest of us aren't, and then goes for personal attacks. He starts constantly looking for ways to poke at people to get them worked up. This was the third big political blowup between us since Mike Brown, and each time I, and multiple people on FB thought he was being really condescending and belittling. In fact, last time and this time, I had some friends private message me to say, "I don't agree with you, but that dude is a prick."

I don't mind arguing differences, even if we can't find common ground, (I see memes on my feed all the time about how my preferred political party is ruining America) but life is too short to deal with people who are so awful, that even people who agree with them think they're an ass. Once or twice, I might be overreacting. All 3 times and thats the only way we ever interact? Not worth it.

[Jocephus]

[Arthur Dent]

Stay off Facebook. No upside. Making you miserable is the best case.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Not sure how many people have thought about this, surely we've all kind of thought about when/how this will end and perhaps just made some assumption that we'll have to get through this first wave then everything will be better. Hope so. But, I wanted to point out that I'm not sure the white house has given this any consideration beyond .... get past the first wave and we're finished.

It's pretty apparent the white house is using some combo of the imperial college model which has been posted in here and the ihme model which i posted a few pages back. NPR does a follow up on what is in the ihme model that we should be aware of.


https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... rojections

If and when the current wave of infections is suppressed, the U.S. will remain vulnerable.

Technically this is not an assumption in the model, but a prediction: Notwithstanding the large number of people who will get sick and even die over the roughly three months the model projects it will take to snuff the current wave of infections, the vast majority of Americans will not contract the virus. This means they will not have immunity against future waves of infection, which could be sparked by cases in the U.S. that remained undetected or by infected visitors from countries where the virus is still circulating widely.

"Our rough guess is that come June, at least 95% of the U.S. will still be susceptible," says IHME's Murray. "That means, of course, it can come right back. And so then we really need to have a robust strategy in place to not have a second wave."

Of note, even the ihme doesn't try to account for what will happen after the first wave only noting that it's a threat.

The clear answer is to get testing in place which would allow people to, in some form, start moving around again. But, according to epidemiologists, the world is about to run out of chemical reagents required for testing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opin ... tages.html

In three to four weeks, there will be a major shortage of chemical reagents for coronavirus testing, the result of limited production capacity, compounded by the collapse of global supply chains when the epidemic closed down manufacturing in China for weeks.

The second hard truth is that at this stage, any public health response that counts on widespread testing in the United States is doomed to fail. No one planned on the whole world experiencing a health conflagration of this magnitude at once, with the need to test many millions of people at the same time. Political leaders and talking heads should stop proffering the widespread-testing option; it simply won’t be available.

In short, well, [expletive].

[sighyoung]

[JCShutout]

Stay off Facebook. No upside. Making you miserable is the best case.

That's my normal MO for the most part, though I've been on more lately.

I posted a picture of some flowers today. If that starts a fight then I'm out.