Coronavirus

[Leroy]

Stay off Facebook. No upside. Making you miserable is the best case.

That's my normal MO for the most part, though I've been on more lately.

I posted a picture of some flowers today. If that starts a fight then I'm out.

What kinda flower? A jerkweed?

[JCShutout]

Stay off Facebook. No upside. Making you miserable is the best case.

That's my normal MO for the most part, though I've been on more lately.

I posted a picture of some flowers today. If that starts a fight then I'm out.

What kinda flower? A jerkweed?

[heyzeus]

Not sure how many people have thought about this, surely we've all kind of thought about when/how this will end and perhaps just made some assumption that we'll have to get through this first wave then everything will be better. Hope so. But, I wanted to point out that I'm not sure the white house has given this any consideration beyond .... get past the first wave and we're finished.

It's pretty apparent the white house is using some combo of the imperial college model which has been posted in here and the ihme model which i posted a few pages back. NPR does a follow up on what is in the ihme model that we should be aware of.


https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... rojections

If and when the current wave of infections is suppressed, the U.S. will remain vulnerable.

Technically this is not an assumption in the model, but a prediction: Notwithstanding the large number of people who will get sick and even die over the roughly three months the model projects it will take to snuff the current wave of infections, the vast majority of Americans will not contract the virus. This means they will not have immunity against future waves of infection, which could be sparked by cases in the U.S. that remained undetected or by infected visitors from countries where the virus is still circulating widely.

"Our rough guess is that come June, at least 95% of the U.S. will still be susceptible," says IHME's Murray. "That means, of course, it can come right back. And so then we really need to have a robust strategy in place to not have a second wave."

Of note, even the ihme doesn't try to account for what will happen after the first wave only noting that it's a threat.

The clear answer is to get testing in place which would allow people to, in some form, start moving around again. But, according to epidemiologists, the world is about to run out of chemical reagents required for testing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opin ... tages.html

In three to four weeks, there will be a major shortage of chemical reagents for coronavirus testing, the result of limited production capacity, compounded by the collapse of global supply chains when the epidemic closed down manufacturing in China for weeks.

The second hard truth is that at this stage, any public health response that counts on widespread testing in the United States is doomed to fail. No one planned on the whole world experiencing a health conflagration of this magnitude at once, with the need to test many millions of people at the same time. Political leaders and talking heads should stop proffering the widespread-testing option; it simply won’t be available.

In short, well, [expletive].

Well, now I'm more depressed than usual.

[Jocephus]

[Freed Roger]

What the hell is the deal with the Navy ship with an outbreak?

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Not sure how many people have thought about this, surely we've all kind of thought about when/how this will end and perhaps just made some assumption that we'll have to get through this first wave then everything will be better. Hope so. But, I wanted to point out that I'm not sure the white house has given this any consideration beyond .... get past the first wave and we're finished.

It's pretty apparent the white house is using some combo of the imperial college model which has been posted in here and the ihme model which i posted a few pages back. NPR does a follow up on what is in the ihme model that we should be aware of.


https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... rojections

If and when the current wave of infections is suppressed, the U.S. will remain vulnerable.

Technically this is not an assumption in the model, but a prediction: Notwithstanding the large number of people who will get sick and even die over the roughly three months the model projects it will take to snuff the current wave of infections, the vast majority of Americans will not contract the virus. This means they will not have immunity against future waves of infection, which could be sparked by cases in the U.S. that remained undetected or by infected visitors from countries where the virus is still circulating widely.

"Our rough guess is that come June, at least 95% of the U.S. will still be susceptible," says IHME's Murray. "That means, of course, it can come right back. And so then we really need to have a robust strategy in place to not have a second wave."

Of note, even the ihme doesn't try to account for what will happen after the first wave only noting that it's a threat.

The clear answer is to get testing in place which would allow people to, in some form, start moving around again. But, according to epidemiologists, the world is about to run out of chemical reagents required for testing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opin ... tages.html

In three to four weeks, there will be a major shortage of chemical reagents for coronavirus testing, the result of limited production capacity, compounded by the collapse of global supply chains when the epidemic closed down manufacturing in China for weeks.

The second hard truth is that at this stage, any public health response that counts on widespread testing in the United States is doomed to fail. No one planned on the whole world experiencing a health conflagration of this magnitude at once, with the need to test many millions of people at the same time. Political leaders and talking heads should stop proffering the widespread-testing option; it simply won’t be available.

In short, well, [expletive].

Well, now I'm more depressed than usual.

On the bright side, I'm usually wrong.

[stlouie_lipp]

gonna be immune bro...whooo! Party!

Bunch of idiots.

[Freed Roger]

gonna be immune bro...whooo! Party!

Bunch of idiots.

...not much different than a cold, brah. Or STDs ...whooo! PARTY!

[sighyoung]

[sighyoung]