Freed Roger wrote:
I'm curious of a couple things with these polls:
the info you show lately has Obama with a solid lead in MO (which i am surprised by), but the CNN electoral map has mo colored pink -still slightly in McCain's camp (pink). what gives?
More or less, it's an averages thing. Each pollster puts out their own independent numbers with different demographics and quite obviously, different people. Depending on the polls that CNN chooses to incorporate in it's calculation of the electoral map, it can read several different ways. Real Clear Politics, which is a poll collecting/averaging website, has Obama up by an average of 1.8 points. That's based on the latest collection of polls, most of which have shown Obama with a slight lead or McCain up by 1 or 2.
CNN/Time also does it's own independent polling. Which means that if they're using SOLELY their polling on their electoral map (I'm not sure, I'd have to check), that they are showing McCain with a lead in Missouri while say pollsters like Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling show Obama with a lead. CNN/Time is the odd duck in this case. Rasmussen/FOX News shows Obama with a 3 point lead. SurveyUSA with an 8 point lead. CNN, also remember, IS a news channel. People don't watch if there isn't drama.
Freed Roger wrote:Also, I keep hearing about this lead in the polls that Kerry had over Bush in 2004 nationally. I didn't follow 04 as closely as this election, but I don't ever remember where Kerry was favored to win - I remember all the commentators saying that his best hope was to win a few swing states, where he could hopefully win the electoral college while losing the popular vote.
I'm sure some poll may have favored Kerry, but that is not my impression of how things stacked up going into election day.
Kerry did not hold a lead from mid August all the way to election day and he lost. Kerry was never favored to win after August and that's just a fact. No presidential candidate that I can recall came back from a lead like this with 3 weeks left. EVER. Even Reagan had more time than this. Kerry was never the favorite after August according to the polls.
Freed Roger wrote:
Is this just the media jacking with us to amp up the drama/ keep their show ratings up?
Bingo. This race isn't close right now. Not even by a longshot. Here's the example I'm giving everyone. I've become somewhat of a person who really, really knows the electoral college scenarios down to a tee by now.
There are a few truly important states right now: Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada. As of right now, Barack Obama has built a lead in all 7 of those states. All of them. Period. In order for John McCain to accumulate 270 electoral votes, which is what is needed to win, he would have to win Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada AND Colorado. See what he has to do there? He has to win all 7 states. Every single one. If he loses ONE of those states, Obama wins the election. Why? Because all of the other states are solid in one way or another.
But here's the kicker: Not only does McCain have to win all of those states, but he has to defend two states that are starting to slip away. West Virginia and Georgia. So in summary, John McCain has to win ALL 9 of those states. Barack Obama needs one of them. There's no other path to victory for John McCain. And the reason it is so unlikely is because Barack Obama holds (averages according to Real Clear Politics) a 6 point lead in Colorado, a 3 point lead in Ohio, a 5 point lead in Florida, a 3 point lead in Nevada, a 2 point lead in Missouri, a 1 point lead in Nevada and a whopping EIGHT point lead in Virginia. Not to mention West Virginia has closed to a one point McCain lead and Virginia down to 7 points. And Indiana is still there too.
Oh, and one more thing: All of these polls don't account for the elevated African American turnout, many, many cell phones and youth turnout. Plus, five states that started early voting as of 3 days ago, Obama was already ahead in.
Code: Select all
... Poll % Voted Non-Early
State Date Early Early Voters Likely Voters
====================================================
NM 10/13 10% Obama +23% Obama +6%
OH 10/13 12% Obama +18% Obama +4%
GA 10/12 18% Obama +6% McCain +11%
IA 10/9 14% Obama +34% Obama +10%
NC 10/6 5% Obama +34% McCain +5%
The media is just trying to make it close. Right now, it's somewhere in the 364-174 mark. Very close to a landslide.
