Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[PujolJunkie]

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arc ... al_sur.php

Ah! Didn't even see that. Good post. That would definitely explain it.

[PujolJunkie]

They did a piece on NPR yesterday explaining the difference between the Gallup and the Gallup Expanded, and why there is a difference. For what it's worth, the panel pretty much thought that given the dynamics of this election that the Expanded poll was more likely to represent reality that the Traditional. If you don't vote regularly, the Traditional doesn't count you. Everyone felt that more young people and others that have not been regular voters will come out this time. The Exanded Gallup has Obama up about 4 more points than the traditional.

Yep. I believe Nate went over that a week or so ago and I agree completely. Of the three models, I'd honestly just trash the Traditional method. It discounts the huge party ID gains made on the left and I don't think it covers enthusiasm, either. It's just not relevant in 2008. 04? Maybe. 08? Nah.

[GatewaySnayke]

There's already a movement taking place trying to mount a conservative comeback. They haven't given up on McCain, but they feel that even if McCain wins the Republican Party needs to be steered back in the "right" direction. Rush talks about it, David Frum already has a book out about it, the wingnuts are set on taking their party back. I actually think a revamped Republican Party could do extremely well, even as soon as 2010. Refocus on actual small government policies, start pushing a flatter revamped tax system, drop the evangelical arm of the party, take a chunk out of the green movement by re-branding it as conservation and pushing nuclear power... the debacle in Iraq will mostly have worked itself out by then, and I'd even distance myself from the knuckleheads PNAC. The problem is that their champion for this conservative comeback is none other than Sarah Palin. If that's the person conservatives want to rest their hats on, they're doomed.

Yeah, it sounds good in theory for the Republicans, but without the evangelical side, their goose is cooked.

The thing that is working against the Republicans may be that they've had a large role in government since 1981. We've had 20 years of Republican presidencies and then we had 12 years of Republican majorities in the houses. The Republicans have essentially had 24 years to hoist their "small government, conservative spending" utopia upon the nation and in that time have done nothing of the sort. Can they convince Americans that "OK, we really didn't do what we said we were going to do in our previous two decades of control, but if you elect us this time, we will DEFINITELY do it"? I don't think so. I just think most Americans have woken up and realized that the GOP is selling them snake oil when it comes to taxes. Republicans have shown time and time again that they believe in the (disproven) power of trickle-down economics.

History is working too strongly against some sort of 1994 Revolution. People can better inform themselves than they could 14 years ago, which is why John McCain can't sell himself as a "true" conservative.

[Freed Roger]

. Silver didn't really have a comment on it, but there was a post that mentioned it.

Saw your buddie Silver on CNN the other night. Boy he looks like he needs to get some sleep.


The AP poll is good for Obama's campaign - to fight complacency.
On the positive for McCain - its a morale boost , some of those people jumping off the ship may grab ahold of the side.

[PujolJunkie]

There's already a movement taking place trying to mount a conservative comeback. They haven't given up on McCain, but they feel that even if McCain wins the Republican Party needs to be steered back in the "right" direction. Rush talks about it, David Frum already has a book out about it, the wingnuts are set on taking their party back. I actually think a revamped Republican Party could do extremely well, even as soon as 2010. Refocus on actual small government policies, start pushing a flatter revamped tax system, drop the evangelical arm of the party, take a chunk out of the green movement by re-branding it as conservation and pushing nuclear power... the debacle in Iraq will mostly have worked itself out by then, and I'd even distance myself from the knuckleheads PNAC. The problem is that their champion for this conservative comeback is none other than Sarah Palin. If that's the person conservatives want to rest their hats on, they're doomed.

History is working too strongly against some sort of 1994 Revolution. People can better inform themselves than they could 14 years ago, which is why John McCain can't sell himself as a "true" conservative.

The thing is, people can better inform themselves than the can 4 years ago, as well, which is really astounding when you think about it. That's another reason the McCain campaign has fell on their face so hard when they try to lie and twist things around -- the FactCheck era is more or less at it's highest point and at the highest point it may ever be at. Someone makes a statement, it's FactCheck'd, Blogged, YouTube'd, Wikipedia'd and Snope'd all in two minutes. I don't think the McCain campaign comprehends that.

And I'm trying not to sound ageist when I say this, but it's simply because John McCain isn't good at running a campaign in the year 2008. I don't think he really gets the fact that every statement he makes is being watched, processed and checked out within the hour.

[JL21]

The thing that is working against the Republicans may be that they've had a large role in government since 1981. We've had 20 years of Republican presidencies and then we had 12 years of Republican majorities in the houses. The Republicans have essentially had 24 years to hoist their "small government, conservative spending" utopia upon the nation and in that time have done nothing of the sort. Can they convince Americans that "OK, we really didn't do what we said we were going to do in our previous two decades of control, but if you elect us this time, we will DEFINITELY do it"? I don't think so. I just think most Americans have woken up and realized that the GOP is selling them snake oil when it comes to taxes. Republicans have shown time and time again that they believe in the (disproven) power of trickle-down economics.

I was thinking about that this morning. I wonder if this is how it felt in the country circa 1968, after the Democrats had basically dominated the landscape from '32 to '68, with DDE as the only Republican president in that era.

And then, you know... a president from Texas bungled a war and it changed everything.

Sure enough, the Democrats had to alter their image a bit. That '32 to '68 era had been marked by bloated gov't programs (which can be seen as a good thing or a bad thing, depending on your perspective, but I'm not trying to argue about that). The next Dem. candidate was Jimmy Carter, a fiscally conservative, devoutly religious southerner who hacked away at government spending. Similarly, the next Dem. to hold office was Clinton, another southerner who balanced the budget.

It seems like there's a conclusion to be drawn there but I really don't know what it is. I'm just rambling at this point.

[PujolJunkie]

. Silver didn't really have a comment on it, but there was a post that mentioned it.

Saw your buddie Silver on CNN the other night. Boy he looks like he needs to get some sleep.


The AP poll is good for Obama's campaign - to fight complacency.
On the positive for McCain - its a morale boost , some of those people jumping off the ship may grab ahold of the side.

He was on Olbermann, too. If I didn't know that he had become a phenom overnight, I'd would have assumed he was so high he couldn't see straight.

The AP poll was immediately put up as a shocker on Drudge Report. The right is definitely clinging onto that poll for dear life. But the trend really has been for them, for every poll that shows it within 1 to 4 points, there's another that shows it in the 7 to 10 point range. That's why they've had trouble getting traction lately, really.

[PujolJunkie]

Montana State University has Obama up by 4.

Obama 44, McCain 40, Paul 4

EDIT: Democracy Corps has McCain by just 2 points in Georgia. It gets worse by the hour.

[PujolJunkie]

* McCain has dramatically slashed ad spending in Wisconsin, running 256 spots this past Monday, down from 352 the previous Monday.

* McCain has scaled back spending in New Hampshire, running 40 spots this past Monday, down from 55 the previous week.

* McCain has cut ad spending in Pennsylvania, running 284 spots this past Monday, down from 336 the previous week.

* McCain has slashed spending in Colorado, running 195 spots this past Monday, down from 243 the previous week.

And by contrast...

* McCain has increased his spending in Florida, a battleground that McCain was supposed to win without too much trouble, running 339 spots this past Monday, versus 311 the previous week.

* McCain has boosted his spending in Virginia, long reliably red but trending blue, running 182 spots this past Monday, up from 169 the previous week.

Tracey notes that there were a couple of exceptions to this pattern. For instance,he says, McCain's ad spending has also dropped in Ohio and North Carolina, two states that are effectively dead heats.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoints ... ing_hi.php

[clement]

For you Obama fans in St. Louis, here is a nice slideshow of pictures from his recent rally under the Arch.

http://www.studlife.com/news/slideshow_ ... r_the_arch