Seattle looking at Craig

[jim]

The contract is important, but the value relationship is not linear.

It's nice to have that many wins coming from one roster spot but that is mitigated by the risk of $20m tied up in a fragile asset. Everything I've seen suggests that it is pretty linear.

So what in your opinion is a fair trade for Felix? What would you dangle in front of the M's if you were Mo?

Fair is so tough to define though. As the article you posted last night addressed, you can't judge a trade the day it was made.

Will Miller go on to be a #1 front end starter that it appeared he was destined to be? If so, even if he is slightly inferior to Hernandez in performance, Miller alone with all 6 cost controlled years would be a great deal and fair for the M's especially since what they'd be losing, a true ace, isn't really needed this year or next for them....the opportunity cost for them is selling less tickets on days he starts for a year and a half. And, really, you've got to think it would be fair to the Cardinals since they are perpetually in a win now mode and getting one of the best pitchers in the game w/o having to sign him to a contract that would be bad for the club. The opportunity cost for the Cardinals is losing a top tier prospect but had they gone the other route, it would have been diminished chances at a WS championship for two year....

But, let's be real, no way in sam hell miller for Hernandez happens straight up because of the uncertainty of Miller. If I was going to say what would a fair trade be, however, for both sides, I've got to think that is it though it's unrealistic.

I'm thinking Craig+Miller for Hernandez. Is that too steep? The way the Reds are playing we are really looking like we are a WC team, and we need to win a one game series. Having Felix for that game makes me feel a helluva lot better than anyone else we have. Not only that, but you push someone (Kelly) to the pen and help there.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I'm thinking Craig+Miller for Hernandez. Is that too steep? The way the Reds are playing we are really looking like we are a WC team, and we need to win a one game series. Having Felix for that game makes me feel a helluva lot better than anyone else we have. Not only that, but you push someone (Kelly) to the pen and help there.

Definitely agree about the WC and needing another SP.

That said, could you imagine if Mozeliak had traded Pujols in 2010 for two guys we had never heard of. 1 who was doing alright to pretty well in the big leagues, but not even an all star, and a good prospect who was struggling in AAA.

I, you, the majority of the board, etc understand contract status and how it affects trades. But, the majority of fans don't, imo. To the average Mariners fan, a Miller/Craig for Hernandez deal would look like highway robbery. How many people in Seattle even know who Miller is....or Craig for that matter.

[tlombard]

Edit: Nevermind. I wasn't in the thread that I thought I was in. Off topic.

[Popeye_Card]

Pitchers don't command the same return that position players do though. Injury threat is too great. Cliff Lee has been traded like 18 times in the last few years. His deals are probably a decent barometer.

[haltz]

The contract is important, but the value relationship is not linear.

It's nice to have that many wins coming from one roster spot but that is mitigated by the risk of $20m tied up in a fragile asset. Everything I've seen suggests that it is pretty linear.

So what in your opinion is a fair trade for Felix? What would you dangle in front of the M's if you were Mo?

I don't know, honestly. I don't think I'd want to be the top bidder. On one hand Craig is older and seems injury prone, and on the other, he's under control for quite some time, has the career numbers (in 180 g) of Matt Holliday and hit all the way through the minors.

If you like Craig, that's a steep price to pay given Felix's contract.

[BW23]

I would have given Miller, Adams, Jenkins and a lower level prospect, but that's about it. However, I would have considered less with Craig involved.

[lukethedrifter]

I think that looking at it only as trading contracts is overly reductive though it purports to be the opposite.

That said, value is value and I wonder if guys like Craig present a (possibly) greater than normal value because they reach the Majors- with highly valued ML skills- at a relatively late age thus giving great bang for the buck through their peak years.