Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[GatewaySnayke]

GRB may not implode, but 538 would. It would be the equivalent to Albert Pujols hitting his 15th percentile.

Pennsylvania: Gore won PA by 3.5% (205k votes). Kerry won PA by 2.5% (140k votes). Obama isn't reaching as much as Kerry did, and McCain is reaching more than W. A lot of PA is veterans. Kerry was a vet. McCain is....well, we've heard enough about it. But it's something that resonates in PA. McCain is pouring a lot of money into PA. His campaign is making a lot of visits to PA. Either McCain is going for a last-chance roll of the dice, or the polls are wrong and PA is close. Considering it was close in 2000, and even closer in 2004, I'm going to say it's not just a "hail mary." I think a lot of Clinton democrats will vote McCain in Pennsylvania, and when all of this is combined with the aforementioned recent closeness of the elections.

It's more a last-chance roll of the dice than the polls being close. Obama has led in 53 of 55 polls since May. He's currently at an eight-point lead.

I could end up being completely wrong, obviously. But why is McCain in "true blue" states like New Hampshire, Iowa, Maine, Pennsylvania? Last grasp? Campaign run by idiots? Or is the race close, the way it's been close the last 8 years? I'm going with close.

I have no idea why he's in Maine when Obama is up anywhere between 13-15% And on Thursday Obama was leading by 24% in one NH poll and 18 in another. But his campaign has been horribly run, which would explain why they are running in states where they have no chance.

[Freed Roger]

I still have a hard time getting my brain around the fact that this race is even this close.

McPalin's campaign seems to have done everything wrong, compared to Obama's being efficient, well-financed and cool-headed. McCain seems out of touch, and has severely compromised the values that I admired in him in the first place. McPalin's campaign is based on fear-mongering and capitalizing on ignorance. Obama's based on generalities -yes. But positive messages that appeal to peoples' better side and the logical conclusion that what we've had the last 8 years doesn't work and is not sustainable.

Yes it appears close. I have more than a suspicion as to why its close at all. There is a preconceived notion in this country that wealthy older white males are the only ones suitable for being the president. There is 230+ years of history to back this up. OK maybe a few were not wealthy, but other than that...

No, I'm not saying this is the only reason this election is this close, nor is it the only reason people are voting for McCain. But its the main reason.

Should McCain happen to win this election, the message sent will be clear. Oh I believe a woman or minority can still become president within a decade or so, but it will have to be someone with an ideology that panders to the extreme right - such as Palin or like an Alan Keyes.

I'm sorry but that's a complete and utter cop out..

If Obama loses the only message that will be sent is that people didn't buy what he was selling...sure there will be people that don't vote for Obama because he's black, and there will be people who don't vote for McCain because he's white, or old, or because he's got a woman running mate..

But neither one of those factors is going to significantly affect this race, and its attitudes like that that continue to set the country back..

Let's not start the excuse train before it's over, Obama is going to win, but if the hail mary is complete and McCain does win, like I said, it's NOT going to be because Obama is black...sorry....not true

Not making excuses, because I do think Obama will win. I'm bringing it up now, because it needs said. Someone like Obama would never say it. If somehow McCain did win, such a post would appear merely as sour grapes.

As mentioned, race isn't the only factor, it may not be a factor at all for you or many people - but IMO it would be a deciding factor if other things were equal. Its almost like you're saying 230+ years of history are irrelevant, and current levels of racism and prejudice are irrelevant as well.

You are correct - if Obama loses, it means people didn't buy what he's selling. He's not selling McCain as too old, or Palin as not qualified because of her gender. If so, I missed it, and sorry. He's selling the issues, and platitudes, and anti-Bush.

Likewise, if McCain connects on the hail mary, the message is people DID BUY what McCain is selling - and what McCain is selling are not issues, but this - Obama pals arounds with terrorists. Obama is a Socialist. Who really is Obama? Et cetera et cetera. I know this, because I get his mailers and see his ads. We all would know how McCain closed the gap.

Hope its all a mute point, Obama wins and handles the issue in classy manner, and does decent enough job as president in challenging times.

[BW23]

I still have a hard time getting my brain around the fact that this race is even this close.

McPalin's campaign seems to have done everything wrong, compared to Obama's being efficient, well-financed and cool-headed. McCain seems out of touch, and has severely compromised the values that I admired in him in the first place. McPalin's campaign is based on fear-mongering and capitalizing on ignorance. Obama's based on generalities -yes. But positive messages that appeal to peoples' better side and the logical conclusion that what we've had the last 8 years doesn't work and is not sustainable.

Yes it appears close. I have more than a suspicion as to why its close at all. There is a preconceived notion in this country that wealthy older white males are the only ones suitable for being the president. There is 230+ years of history to back this up. OK maybe a few were not wealthy, but other than that...

No, I'm not saying this is the only reason this election is this close, nor is it the only reason people are voting for McCain. But its the main reason.

Should McCain happen to win this election, the message sent will be clear. Oh I believe a woman or minority can still become president within a decade or so, but it will have to be someone with an ideology that panders to the extreme right - such as Palin or like an Alan Keyes.

I'm sorry but that's a complete and utter cop out..

If Obama loses the only message that will be sent is that people didn't buy what he was selling...sure there will be people that don't vote for Obama because he's black, and there will be people who don't vote for McCain because he's white, or old, or because he's got a woman running mate..

But neither one of those factors is going to significantly affect this race, and its attitudes like that that continue to set the country back..

Let's not start the excuse train before it's over, Obama is going to win, but if the hail mary is complete and McCain does win, like I said, it's NOT going to be because Obama is black...sorry....not true

Obama will likely get more votes because he's black than he'll lose because he's black.

He should lose because of how extremely left he is and how suspect, at best, his judgment is, but he talks a good game (without saying anything) that all of that is mostly glossed over.

[ThatGuy]

Would GRB implode if McCain were to win Tuesday?

GRB would be the least of our worries if that happens.

That's the attitude that makes me want to root for the old dude.

[clement]

If Obama loses the only message that will be sent is that people didn't buy what he was selling...sure there will be people that don't vote for Obama because he's black, and there will be people who don't vote for McCain because he's white, or old, or because he's got a woman running mate..

Let's not start the excuse train before it's over, Obama is going to win, but if the hail mary is complete and McCain does win, like I said, it's NOT going to be because Obama is black...sorry....not true

The thing is, we've had polls for the past month that have pretty consistently shown that Obama is ahead by roughly 6-8 points nationally (if you sort of take an average of the hundreds of national polls that have been taken). And if you look at polls at the state level, his lead is even more insurmountable, where McCain basically has to win a state (PA) that Obama has led consistently by about 8-10% for the past month to even stand a chance... and even then it's a very slim chance. He'd still need to win a bunch of the toss-up states, all of which either Obama is leading slightly or they are even.

So if by some shock, McCain is the victor on Tuesday, what would explain such a monumental shift?

- Is it the Bradley Effect?
- Is it an undercurrent of racism that polls cannot detect?
- Is it voter suppression?
- Is there something wrong with the integrity of our vote counting process?
- Was the election stolen?
- Or did McCain just mount a huge comeback and peaked at the perfect time, right after the last of the polls took place? (because I haven't seen any hail mary thrown by him that would change the dynamics of the race in any appreciable way - he's made his arguments and it hasn't shifted the polls much, if at all).

Of course this is all hypothetical. As you said, Obama should win, and if he does win as expected by about 4 or 5% then all of this is moot. But given our country's history, you can appreciate why those who are anticipating an Obama victory are holding their breath, expecting and hoping for the best, but not quite ruling out the most cynical possibilities.

[cardsfansince82]

Obama will likely get more votes because he's black than he'll lose because he's black.

No.

[cardsfansince82]

Would GRB implode if McCain were to win Tuesday?

GRB would be the least of our worries if that happens.

That's the attitude that makes me want to root for the old dude.

I guess if you like riots and pissing away any gains in racial equality that have been made.

[ThatGuy]

Would GRB implode if McCain were to win Tuesday?

GRB would be the least of our worries if that happens.

That's the attitude that makes me want to root for the old dude.

I guess if you like riots and pissing away any gains in racial equality that have been made.

Yeah, I do.

[BenNX74205]

Pennsylvania: Gore won PA by 3.5% (205k votes). Kerry won PA by 2.5% (140k votes). Obama isn't reaching as much as Kerry did, and McCain is reaching more than W. A lot of PA is veterans. Kerry was a vet. McCain is....well, we've heard enough about it. But it's something that resonates in PA. McCain is pouring a lot of money into PA. His campaign is making a lot of visits to PA. Either McCain is going for a last-chance roll of the dice, or the polls are wrong and PA is close. Considering it was close in 2000, and even closer in 2004, I'm going to say it's not just a "hail mary." I think a lot of Clinton democrats will vote McCain in Pennsylvania, and when all of this is combined with the aforementioned recent closeness of the elections.

It's more a last-chance roll of the dice than the polls being close. Obama has led in 53 of 55 polls since May. He's currently at an eight-point lead.

There is absolutely no way that Obama wins Pennsylvania by 8. Polls are *NEVER* right. I never said it was that the polls were close in PA; I said the RACE is close in PA, and that is why McCain is hitting it so hard. History says it will be close. The fact that he is visiting PA so much says it will be close.

If it is going to be a big win for Obama, why is Congressman Murth calling his own constituents "racists?" Pre-emptive damage control if Obama doesn't win big, perhaps? If it's not close, why is the PA Governor practically begging for Obama to come back and campaign more in PA?

I could end up being completely wrong, obviously. But why is McCain in "true blue" states like New Hampshire, Iowa, Maine, Pennsylvania? Last grasp? Campaign run by idiots? Or is the race close, the way it's been close the last 8 years? I'm going with close.

I have no idea why he's in Maine when Obama is up anywhere between 13-15% And on Thursday Obama was leading by 24% in one NH poll and 18 in another. But his campaign has been horribly run, which would explain why they are running in states where they have no chance.[/quote]
Look beyond the polls. In the last 100+ years, a democrat has swept into office with the kind of landslide victory Obama is projecting to receive TWICE: LBJ (a southern Dem riding the emotional wave of the JFK assassination) and FDR (that whole Great Depression thing). Yeah, the economy has dropped a lot the last month or so. We're all the way down to where it was in 2003. A lot of gains were erased, but this isn't 1929.

If Obama is up 13-15% in Maine and if Obama is up 1824% in New Hampshire, why are BOTH candidates campaigning in those states this close to the election? Actually, forget McCain being there--why is Obama there if victory is all but assured, according to the polls? Either Obama's campaign is poorly run (which we both don't think it is), or the polls are bunk and it's actually going to be a race in some NORTHEASTERN states.

I wouldn't bet the farm on a McCain victory tomorrow, but I'm 99% sure that Obama is not going to cake walk to the presidency tomorrow night. Look beyond the polls. Look where both candidates are sending their money and their personal time. Look at historical election results. Republicans are not going to stay home the way they did in 2006; unfortunately Palin has energized the conservative base, and I'm sure the neverending talk of the inevitable Obama victory has done something to get out the Republican vote as well.

The only good thing is that this will all be over tomorrow (I hope). I can't take any more of it.

[letsgocards89]

I still have a hard time getting my brain around the fact that this race is even this close.

McPalin's campaign seems to have done everything wrong, compared to Obama's being efficient, well-financed and cool-headed. McCain seems out of touch, and has severely compromised the values that I admired in him in the first place. McPalin's campaign is based on fear-mongering and capitalizing on ignorance. Obama's based on generalities -yes. But positive messages that appeal to peoples' better side and the logical conclusion that what we've had the last 8 years doesn't work and is not sustainable.

Yes it appears close. I have more than a suspicion as to why its close at all. There is a preconceived notion in this country that wealthy older white males are the only ones suitable for being the president. There is 230+ years of history to back this up. OK maybe a few were not wealthy, but other than that...

No, I'm not saying this is the only reason this election is this close, nor is it the only reason people are voting for McCain. But its the main reason.

Should McCain happen to win this election, the message sent will be clear. Oh I believe a woman or minority can still become president within a decade or so, but it will have to be someone with an ideology that panders to the extreme right - such as Palin or like an Alan Keyes.

I'm sorry but that's a complete and utter cop out..

If Obama loses the only message that will be sent is that people didn't buy what he was selling...sure there will be people that don't vote for Obama because he's black, and there will be people who don't vote for McCain because he's white, or old, or because he's got a woman running mate..

But neither one of those factors is going to significantly affect this race, and its attitudes like that that continue to set the country back..

Let's not start the excuse train before it's over, Obama is going to win, but if the hail mary is complete and McCain does win, like I said, it's NOT going to be because Obama is black...sorry....not true

Obama will likely get more votes because he's black than he'll lose because he's black.

He should lose because of how extremely left he is and how suspect, at best, his judgment is, but he talks a good game (without saying anything) that all of that is mostly glossed over.

Not to mention his having only 3 years of national-level experience. (and spending 2 of those years campaining)

But hey, Obama inexperience = good Palin inexperience = bad. Go figure.