Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[PujolJunkie]

With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House.

The national polls have all consolidated into a range of roughly Obama +7. That is right about where our model sees the race as well, giving Obama a 6.8 point advantage in its composite of state and national polling. Our model notes, however, that candidates with large leads in the polls have had some tendency to underperform marginally on election day, and so projects an Obama win of 6.0 points tomorrow.

Far more important, of course, is the race for 270 electors. It appears almost certain that Obama will capture all of the states won by John Kerry in 2008. Pennsylvania, while certainly having tightened somewhat over the course of the past two weeks, appears to be holding at a margin of about +8 for Obama, with very few remaining undecideds. Obama also appears almost certain to capture Iowa and New Mexico, which were won by Al Gore in 2000. Collectively, these states total 264 electoral votes, leaving Obama just 5 votes shy of a tie and 6 of a win.

Obama has any number of states to collect those 5 or 6 votes. In inverse order of difficulty, these include Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. Obama is the signficant favorite in several of these states; winning any one of them may be fairly difficult for John McCain, but winning all of them at once, as John McCain probably must do, is nearly impossible.

McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama's support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

McCain's chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year.

Our final polling update of the campaign will follow in the early afternoon tomorrow.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ ... ition.html

[BW23]

That darn GOP.

A palliative: http://griffinroomblog.blogspot.com/200 ... chair.html

Ah, Fred. What could have been.....

I said just yesterday that I'd give the right wing (Fox/Limbaugh.Hannity, etc...) a week before they jump on the "I told you all along it shouldn't have been McCain..."

Going out far on that limb, aren't you?

[BW23]

That darn GOP.

A palliative: http://griffinroomblog.blogspot.com/200 ... chair.html

Ah, Fred. What could have been.....

I said just yesterday that I'd give the right wing (Fox/Limbaugh.Hannity, etc...) a week before they jump on the "I told you all along it shouldn't have been McCain..."

Who will they say it should have been? Romney? None of the other Republican candidates IMO could have done better than McCain.

I agree Mary.

You don't really believe that.

[Mary1966]

I still don't see how mentioning Obama's middle name, as that sticker does, adds anything to the discussion. As soon as I see or hear that, it discredits whatever other point is being made.

My middle name is Robert.

When I run for President in a few decades I hope the Republicans don't make a big deal about it being the same name as the ringleader of the military branch of a famous secessionist/domestic terrorist group.

++

Hussein is the name of one of Mohammed's grandsons, so it's like a biblical name for Muslims. Telling Muslims not to name their kids Hussein because of Saddam Hussein is like telling Christians not to name their kids Timothy because of Timothy McVeigh.

McCain's middle name is Sidney. I'm sure you have some thoughts about that name, too.

LOL. John Sidney McCain III to be precise. He also named one of his daughters Sidney and she is the same age as me.

[ghostrunner]

That darn GOP.

A palliative: http://griffinroomblog.blogspot.com/200 ... chair.html

Ah, Fred. What could have been.....

I said just yesterday that I'd give the right wing (Fox/Limbaugh.Hannity, etc...) a week before they jump on the "I told you all along it shouldn't have been McCain..."

Who will they say it should have been? Romney? None of the other Republican candidates IMO could have done better than McCain.

I agree Mary.

You don't really believe that.

I think Romney would have done better. He seems to have some vigor about him and I think would have matched up better in the debates. I never would have considered voting for him though, whereas I was going to vote for McCain. McCain never went after the center enough, which I don't understand because that should've been a natural course for him.

I always thought Thompson seemed rather uninterested in the whole thing. I'm not sure that his trophy wife wouldn't have been a problem.

Giuliani turned out to be a poor candidate, which surprised me.

[PujolJunkie]

Obama's grandmother dies, and here's FreeRepublic's, the Conservative Version of DailyKos', responses:

I picked day after election on my dead pool pick

Terminally ill cancer patients rarely die from the cancer itself.
It is not uncommon for their death to be planned and assisted, before the suffering become too unbearable.

There is no doubt that 0bama went to Hawaii to finalize such a planned terminal sedation for his grandmother, and decided on today as the day for her to pass on.

This may have been the first politically timed terminally sedation ever.

It’s sad she won’t be around to see her Grandson lose.

Well, as far as she is concerned, God rest her soul.

And as far as Obama is concerned, it sure is convenient.

What is interesting is that when Obama bragged about taking his campaign (and himself) to 57 states, Hawaii was not one of them. He had over $600,000,000 in campaign funds and he could not use any of them to visit the state that his Grandmother was dying in. When he finally did, he spent less than half a day in the state. We don't even have confirmation that he actually saw his grandmother before she died.

May have succumbed to Broken Heart considering what a crack-head, lying, racist and America hater her zebra Grandson turned out to be. Undoubtedly, her daughter was even more of a low life. Ms. Madelyn was probably very sad in her later years.

0bama’s Nevada campaign chief died today, as well.......

Hmmmmmm.........

I have a simple question. Has anyone mention the time or date of death? Has a certificate of death issued?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2124024/posts

[doe_boy]

Obama's grandmother dies, and here's FreeRepublic's, the Conservative Version of DailyKos', responses:

I picked day after election on my dead pool pick

Terminally ill cancer patients rarely die from the cancer itself.
It is not uncommon for their death to be planned and assisted, before the suffering become too unbearable.

There is no doubt that 0bama went to Hawaii to finalize such a planned terminal sedation for his grandmother, and decided on today as the day for her to pass on.

This may have been the first politically timed terminally sedation ever.

It’s sad she won’t be around to see her Grandson lose.

Well, as far as she is concerned, God rest her soul.

And as far as Obama is concerned, it sure is convenient.

What is interesting is that when Obama bragged about taking his campaign (and himself) to 57 states, Hawaii was not one of them. He had over $600,000,000 in campaign funds and he could not use any of them to visit the state that his Grandmother was dying in. When he finally did, he spent less than half a day in the state. We don't even have confirmation that he actually saw his grandmother before she died.

May have succumbed to Broken Heart considering what a crack-head, lying, racist and America hater her zebra Grandson turned out to be. Undoubtedly, her daughter was even more of a low life. Ms. Madelyn was probably very sad in her later years.

0bama’s Nevada campaign chief died today, as well.......

Hmmmmmm.........

I have a simple question. Has anyone mention the time or date of death? Has a certificate of death issued?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2124024/posts

It's really sad to think that all of us may know or even be one these posters. The DailyKos bunch are no better.

How easy life is when you de-humanize those you disagree with.

[PujolJunkie]

Obama's grandmother dies, and here's FreeRepublic's, the Conservative Version of DailyKos', responses:

I picked day after election on my dead pool pick

Terminally ill cancer patients rarely die from the cancer itself.
It is not uncommon for their death to be planned and assisted, before the suffering become too unbearable.

There is no doubt that 0bama went to Hawaii to finalize such a planned terminal sedation for his grandmother, and decided on today as the day for her to pass on.

This may have been the first politically timed terminally sedation ever.

It’s sad she won’t be around to see her Grandson lose.

Well, as far as she is concerned, God rest her soul.

And as far as Obama is concerned, it sure is convenient.

What is interesting is that when Obama bragged about taking his campaign (and himself) to 57 states, Hawaii was not one of them. He had over $600,000,000 in campaign funds and he could not use any of them to visit the state that his Grandmother was dying in. When he finally did, he spent less than half a day in the state. We don't even have confirmation that he actually saw his grandmother before she died.

May have succumbed to Broken Heart considering what a crack-head, lying, racist and America hater her zebra Grandson turned out to be. Undoubtedly, her daughter was even more of a low life. Ms. Madelyn was probably very sad in her later years.

0bama’s Nevada campaign chief died today, as well.......

Hmmmmmm.........

I have a simple question. Has anyone mention the time or date of death? Has a certificate of death issued?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2124024/posts

It's really sad to think that all of us may know or even be one these posters. The DailyKos bunch are no better.

How easy life is when you de-humanize those you disagree with.

I will say this much: When someone passes away and DailyKos posts on it, it's usually in the form of "I didn't agree with ___, but it's always sad when someone passes away," or some form. Most over there completely and utterly condemned the Palin baby rumors, that Trig wasn't hers. There are loonies over there, but not like this. This is flat out puke-worthy.

[BenNX74205]

A Hayes Research poll just came out giving McCain just a 3 point lead in Alaska. Definitely an outlier, but funny to look at none the less.

EDIT: by the way, the supposed Pennsylvania tightening? It tightened to a 6 or 7 point Obama lead. Moderate Republicans came home to roost for McCain and he gained independents. It's still bluer than the nation by 3 or 4%.

Obama will not win Pennsylvania by 6 points. Put it on the board.

I wouldn't be so positive of that.

It was 5% bluer than the rest of the Nation when Kerry won it. 6 isn't a stretch.

I don't know about "percentage bluer" or "bluer than the nation." I don't really know what that means, and I didn't know it counted in an election.

What I do know is that Gore won PA by 3.5% in 2000 and Kerry won PA by 2.5%. Pennsylvania is trending red, and the Democratic Voting Machine isn't geared up for this election.

What is so different between Ohio and Pennsylvania that OH is dead even and PA is a big Obama win? I'm telling you guys, these polls don't look like they're adding up to me. Yeah I could be wrong, and it's not like I'm pulling for McCain here. But I think a lot of people are going to be surprised how close this election is going to be.

[Arthur Dent]

Pennsylvania is trending red, and the Democratic Voting Machine isn't geared up for this election.

Since when is the Democratic Voting Machine not geared up? The PA "trend" towards McCain is small and late and Obama already has decent lead there. Maybe the polls are totally wrong, but I have not heard a credible story for why that would be the case.