Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[Hungary Jack]

Pennsylvania is trending red, and the Democratic Voting Machine isn't geared up for this election.

Since when is the Democratic Voting Machine not geared up? The PA "trend" towards McCain is small and late and Obama already has decent lead there. Maybe the polls are totally wrong, but I have not heard a credible story for why that would be the case.

I think he means that the faulty voting machine that causes the hanging chads is still in mothballs in a warehouse in Altoona...

[PujolJunkie]

A Hayes Research poll just came out giving McCain just a 3 point lead in Alaska. Definitely an outlier, but funny to look at none the less.

EDIT: by the way, the supposed Pennsylvania tightening? It tightened to a 6 or 7 point Obama lead. Moderate Republicans came home to roost for McCain and he gained independents. It's still bluer than the nation by 3 or 4%.

Obama will not win Pennsylvania by 6 points. Put it on the board.

I wouldn't be so positive of that.

It was 5% bluer than the rest of the Nation when Kerry won it. 6 isn't a stretch.

I don't know about "percentage bluer" or "bluer than the nation." I don't really know what that means, and I didn't know it counted in an election.

What I do know is that Gore won PA by 3.5% in 2000 and Kerry won PA by 2.5%. Pennsylvania is trending red, and the Democratic Voting Machine isn't geared up for this election.

What is so different between Ohio and Pennsylvania that OH is dead even and PA is a big Obama win? I'm telling you guys, these polls don't look like they're adding up to me. Yeah I could be wrong, and it's not like I'm pulling for McCain here. But I think a lot of people are going to be surprised how close this election is going to be.

I've already outlined the fact that Real Clear Politics' averages were completely, around 95%, spot on in 2004. It got 2 states wrong. One that was never polled, Hawaii, and Wisconsin. Two. Go look now. It's gonna end up that way or very close. Obama 300> EV and McCain will lose Pennsylvania. It's just not gonna happen.

If it was within the MoE%, you'd have a point. But PA is a 4 to 8 point win for Obama.

[planet planet]

What happens to the Obama campaign's surplus $?

[Arthur Dent]

I've already outlined the fact that Real Clear Politics' averages were completely, around 95%, spot on in 2004. It got 2 states wrong. One that was never polled, Hawaii

It looks like they even got Hawaii right.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presid ... CP_EC.html

[jim]

That darn GOP.

A palliative: http://griffinroomblog.blogspot.com/200 ... chair.html

Ah, Fred. What could have been.....

I said just yesterday that I'd give the right wing (Fox/Limbaugh.Hannity, etc...) a week before they jump on the "I told you all along it shouldn't have been McCain..."

Who will they say it should have been? Romney? None of the other Republican candidates IMO could have done better than McCain.

I agree Mary.

You don't really believe that.

Incumbant president most unpopular in the history of polling with an unpopular war and an economy in the tank. McCain was the best shot.

[KyCardinalFan]

That darn GOP.

A palliative: http://griffinroomblog.blogspot.com/200 ... chair.html

Ah, Fred. What could have been.....

I said just yesterday that I'd give the right wing (Fox/Limbaugh.Hannity, etc...) a week before they jump on the "I told you all along it shouldn't have been McCain..."

Who will they say it should have been? Romney? None of the other Republican candidates IMO could have done better than McCain.

I agree Mary.

You don't really believe that.

Incumbant president most unpopular in the history of polling with an unpopular war and an economy in the tank. McCain was the best shot.

I think Romney would've done better in an election about the economy. However, when the candidates were selected during the primaries I'm sure most voting then thought this would be about national security and Iraq.

[jim]

That darn GOP.

A palliative: http://griffinroomblog.blogspot.com/200 ... chair.html

Ah, Fred. What could have been.....

I said just yesterday that I'd give the right wing (Fox/Limbaugh.Hannity, etc...) a week before they jump on the "I told you all along it shouldn't have been McCain..."

Who will they say it should have been? Romney? None of the other Republican candidates IMO could have done better than McCain.

I agree Mary.

You don't really believe that.

Incumbant president most unpopular in the history of polling with an unpopular war and an economy in the tank. McCain was the best shot.

I think Romney would've done better in an election about the economy. However, when the candidates were selected during the primaries I'm sure most voting then thought this would be about national security and Iraq.

Mormon, right? Would they accept that?

[UK]

McCain had an opportunity to separate himself from Bush but he gambled on locking down the conservative base 1st and foremost and then counting on those who supported him in '00 when he ran the against neo-conservative ideologies of GWB.

Between underestimating the shift of undecided to the left, an awful run campaign, some gaffes (fundamentals being strong), Palin backlash from the left and independents, etc., the only who likely could've did better was Romney. The best combo would've been McCain/Romney but they went for disenchanted Clinton supporters with Palin and it hasn't worked.

[KyCardinalFan]

So will Missouri keep it's reputation of voting for nearly every president?

[UK]

So will Missouri keep it's reputation of voting for nearly every president?

It'll be close, but I think MO is going red while Obama wins the election.