Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus (Update: Finalized!)

[cpebbles]

Why are sabr people usually pessimistic?

If you're talking about me, why is it "pessimistic" to say that the player we have is better than the one we're rumored to be trading for? Just because you think the opposite doesn't mean mine is the pessimistic point of view.

[Magneto2.0]

Glaus has been a better player the last 3 seasons. (Collectively)

[AlwaysBeClosing]

Why are sabr people usually pessimistic?

If you're talking about me, why is it "pessimistic" to say that the player we have is better than the one we're rumored to be trading for? Just because you think the opposite doesn't mean mine is the pessimistic point of view.

And just because you think the player we have is better then the one we are rumored to be trading for doesn't mean it's true..

There is a VERY good chance Rolen will never be the player he once was, and if that's the case, the Cardinals are getting the better end of the deal....but bottom line is none of us know that...so to say that we are getting the worse end of the deal at this point is merely an opinion and in no way fact until we see how both players rebound

[cpebbles]

There is a VERY good chance Rolen will never be the player he once was, and if that's the case, the Cardinals are getting the better end of the deal....but bottom line is none of us know that...so to say that we are getting the worse end of the deal at this point is merely an opinion and in no way fact until we see how both players rebound

Nobody outside of these organizations knows what the chances are that Rolen will never be the player he once was (Or a version appropriately age-adjusted). There is no data to go on, and your gut feeling that his shoulder is wrecked carries no weight. Mo's attempts to deal him don't really factor in either, seeing as Mo has demonstrated that he's catering to Tony's wishes.

All we can say is that in the event that Rolen's shoulder is beyond hope, there is a good chance that the Blue Jays call this deal off. There is almost no upside for us in this.

Glaus has been a better player the last 3 seasons. (Collectively)

Glaus has been playing between injuries. Rolen has been playing during injuries.

[Felix The Cat]

Glaus has also been injury prone but the difference might be that he has been super productive between injuries, which Rolen hasn't.

I would rather that we keep Rolen and that he bounce back with a great year, but as far as what I might have expected us to get in return, I would be ecstatic if we got Troy Glaus.

My sentiments exactly. The health question will be a risk on both sides but this deal is probably the best we can get for Rolen at this point.

I guess it comes to do whether or not you like this trade depends if you believe in clubhouse chemistry or not.

[dangerous]

Why are sabr people usually pessimistic?

If you're talking about me, why is it "pessimistic" to say that the player we have is better than the one we're rumored to be trading for? Just because you think the opposite doesn't mean mine is the pessimistic point of view.

Most of the time statistical arguments are used to support a premise of what could go wrong (data available upon request). That leaves happy idiot joe 6 pack fans to take the contrary, optimistic point of view.

I would happily trade a very damaged elite athlete for a less-injured less elite one, even with a steroid cloud.

[Felix The Cat]

Nobody outside of these organizations knows what the chances are that Rolen will never be the player he once was (Or a version appropriately age-adjusted). There is no data to go on, and your gut feeling that his shoulder is wrecked carries no weight. Mo's attempts to deal him don't really factor in either, seeing as Mo has demonstrated that he's catering to Tony's wishes.

All we can say is that in the event that Rolen's shoulder is beyond hope, there is a good chance that the Blue Jays call this deal off. There is almost no upside for us in this.

What are the chances the Blue Jays' medical staff is as competent (or incompetent ) as the Cardinals'? Anyone know their track record when it comes to injuries and such?

[picasso]

I like the trade.

I prefer medium risk/medium reward/high salary over high risk/slightly above medium reward/higher salary over the course of the next 2 seasons for this team.

[Rieges]

There is no data to go on, and your gut feeling that his shoulder is wrecked carries no weight.

At the same time, your gut feeling that Rolen's shoulder WILL allow him to even return to '06 production levels carries no weight either.

Mo's attempts to deal him don't really factor in either, seeing as Mo has demonstrated that he's catering to Tony's wishes.

Are you basing this opinion on the Miles' re-signing?

All we can say is that in the event that Rolen's shoulder is beyond hope, there is a good chance that the Blue Jays call this deal off. There is almost no upside for us in this.

Not necessarily. Rolen's shoulder could appear structurally sound but still not have the strength to get around on fastballs. More importantly, his shoulder could feel fine today but Rolen could continue to experience soreness/discomfort over the course of a long season or he could require additional "clean-up" surgeries. Rolen's had three surgeries on this shoulder in 2, 2 1/2 years. Players with injury histories get traded and pass physicals all the time only to have a re-occurrence of the injury. Look at Randy Johnson.

Glaus has been playing between injuries. Rolen has been playing during injuries.

I'm not sure if I completely agree that Glaus hasn't also been playing through injuries. I suspect that there were times last seaon when his foot was acting up and continued to play. At any rate, Glaus has still played more over the past three years than Rolen AND has been more productive so I'm not sure why his having played through pain the second half of '06 and last year makes him the more attractive player.

[cards2468]

If it means anything to anybody, I had the same surgery Rolen had but on my right shoulder and I never regained my left handed swing (injured shoulder as the front shoulder), I'll miss Scotty, and we'll never see a glove at 3b like that again, but Glaus does have a decent shot at outproducing Rolen