Coronavirus

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AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

In addition, spike stalk S2 in SARS-CoV-2 is highly conserved and shares 99% identity with those of the two bat SARS-like CoVs (bat-SL-CoVZXC21 and bat-SL-CoVZC45) and human SARS-CoV [11]. Thus, the broad spectrum antiviral peptides against S2 has the potential to be effective treatment [93]
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7077191/

Yeah, the s protein (spike) is the exact same. The RNA is a 96.35% match as well.

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stlouie_lipp
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by stlouie_lipp »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote: ↑
May 7 20, 1:59 pm
Is there a link to that interview somewhere, my 8 seconds of search only got previous interviews. I was able to find a little bit of the transcript online, but it didn't talk about vaccines.

In the transcript, whichi s blocked at work so I can't post the link (but read on my phone), he didn't come off as well informed. The one thing I'd question is the statement 'we just don't know why' certain groups are targeted by the virus. It's pretty well established that they know precisely how the virus breaks down cells (via the spike attaching to the ACE2 enzyme) and we know the groups he talked about have elevated ACE2 levels. This has been known since march and was well studied prior to Sars-Cov-2 existing because the Cov-2 spike that attaches to ACE2 is same as the Sars-Cov (1) spike that existed in 2002.

That came off as confusing. So, I'll rephrase it. The Sars-Cov-2 virus (causes Covid 19, very prevalent in the world today, big pita) infects cells via the same mechanism that the SARS virus infected cells and that is through an enzyme that has been well studied. And, it's well known those enzymes are more available in certain groups of people.

Here's a link from a study done in 2005 that established the ACE2/SARS connection.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1287568/
Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), the receptor for both the SARS-CoV and the related human respiratory coronavirus NL63, was expressed in human airway epithelia as well as lung parenchyma. As assessed by immunofluorescence staining and membrane biotinylation, ACE2 protein was more abundantly expressed on the apical than the basolateral surface of polarized airway epithelia. Interestingly, ACE2 expression positively correlated with the differentiation state of epithelia. Undifferentiated cells expressing little ACE2 were poorly infected with SARS-CoV, while well-differentiated cells expressing more ACE2 were readily infected.
You can just re-date the study to 2020 and replace SARS-CoV with SARS-CoV-2.

In short, I'm getting myself all worked up, but how can a doctor speak intelligently about the subject and not know this basic piece of information.
No offense, but he know A LOT more about it than you. The SiriusXM app is free right now. The whole interview would be on there and you might get the context you are looking for. IIRC the part you are referencing was him saying we don't know why it affects some in the at risk demo but not all.

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

stlouie_lipp wrote: ↑
May 7 20, 3:08 pm
AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote: ↑
May 7 20, 1:59 pm
Is there a link to that interview somewhere, my 8 seconds of search only got previous interviews. I was able to find a little bit of the transcript online, but it didn't talk about vaccines.

In the transcript, whichi s blocked at work so I can't post the link (but read on my phone), he didn't come off as well informed. The one thing I'd question is the statement 'we just don't know why' certain groups are targeted by the virus. It's pretty well established that they know precisely how the virus breaks down cells (via the spike attaching to the ACE2 enzyme) and we know the groups he talked about have elevated ACE2 levels. This has been known since march and was well studied prior to Sars-Cov-2 existing because the Cov-2 spike that attaches to ACE2 is same as the Sars-Cov (1) spike that existed in 2002.

That came off as confusing. So, I'll rephrase it. The Sars-Cov-2 virus (causes Covid 19, very prevalent in the world today, big pita) infects cells via the same mechanism that the SARS virus infected cells and that is through an enzyme that has been well studied. And, it's well known those enzymes are more available in certain groups of people.

Here's a link from a study done in 2005 that established the ACE2/SARS connection.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1287568/
Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), the receptor for both the SARS-CoV and the related human respiratory coronavirus NL63, was expressed in human airway epithelia as well as lung parenchyma. As assessed by immunofluorescence staining and membrane biotinylation, ACE2 protein was more abundantly expressed on the apical than the basolateral surface of polarized airway epithelia. Interestingly, ACE2 expression positively correlated with the differentiation state of epithelia. Undifferentiated cells expressing little ACE2 were poorly infected with SARS-CoV, while well-differentiated cells expressing more ACE2 were readily infected.
You can just re-date the study to 2020 and replace SARS-CoV with SARS-CoV-2.

In short, I'm getting myself all worked up, but how can a doctor speak intelligently about the subject and not know this basic piece of information.
No offense, but he know A LOT more about it than you. The SiriusXM app is free right now. The whole interview would be on there and you might get the context you are looking for. IIRC the part you are referencing was him saying we don't know why it affects some in the at risk demo but not all.
https://www.howardstern.com/show/2020/5 ... ad-summer/
Howard was also curious why the virus wreaks havoc on some people while leaving others asymptomatic.
“It’s a dastardly virus—and I don’t use that word often,” Dr. Agus said. “In New York City, almost 95 percent of patients hospitalized had either obesity, diabetes, or elevated blood pressure. Period. Why does it discriminate against those people? We Just dont know.”
Typically, I'd defer to medical professionals and acknowledge I know A LOT less. But, that simply doesn't appear to be the case. Those groups have elevated ACE2 levels and that's the answer. Further, to your point, people within an at risk group don't all have identical immune systems which accounts for the different outcomes of individuals within those groups. That's not to say it's 100%, but it's pretty well established that we know how the virus works and we know the importance of immune systems. Granted it's a novel virus, so it's not 100% understood on a granular level like how important copper level in the blood is, but it's understood well enough to know what he says just can't be known.

Regardless, everything I've seen, which is granted possibly A LOT less than Agus because I don't follow vaccines, a 6 month timeline seems to at a minimum combine phases, shorten the timelines for observation between phases, and shorten the amount of time given to fine tune the correct dosage. I'm up to date on all vaccines as are my kids, but if they're going to be messing with RNA or creating a traditional vaccine to a type of virus that currently has no vaccines available, and do it in a shortened timeframe, all to cure a virus that in the end will likely have an infection fatality rate of less to well less than 1% for the majority of the demographics, then I'm going to be pretty skeptical.

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stlouie_lipp
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by stlouie_lipp »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote: ↑
May 7 20, 4:13 pm
stlouie_lipp wrote: ↑
May 7 20, 3:08 pm
AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote: ↑
May 7 20, 1:59 pm
Is there a link to that interview somewhere, my 8 seconds of search only got previous interviews. I was able to find a little bit of the transcript online, but it didn't talk about vaccines.

In the transcript, whichi s blocked at work so I can't post the link (but read on my phone), he didn't come off as well informed. The one thing I'd question is the statement 'we just don't know why' certain groups are targeted by the virus. It's pretty well established that they know precisely how the virus breaks down cells (via the spike attaching to the ACE2 enzyme) and we know the groups he talked about have elevated ACE2 levels. This has been known since march and was well studied prior to Sars-Cov-2 existing because the Cov-2 spike that attaches to ACE2 is same as the Sars-Cov (1) spike that existed in 2002.

That came off as confusing. So, I'll rephrase it. The Sars-Cov-2 virus (causes Covid 19, very prevalent in the world today, big pita) infects cells via the same mechanism that the SARS virus infected cells and that is through an enzyme that has been well studied. And, it's well known those enzymes are more available in certain groups of people.

Here's a link from a study done in 2005 that established the ACE2/SARS connection.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1287568/
Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), the receptor for both the SARS-CoV and the related human respiratory coronavirus NL63, was expressed in human airway epithelia as well as lung parenchyma. As assessed by immunofluorescence staining and membrane biotinylation, ACE2 protein was more abundantly expressed on the apical than the basolateral surface of polarized airway epithelia. Interestingly, ACE2 expression positively correlated with the differentiation state of epithelia. Undifferentiated cells expressing little ACE2 were poorly infected with SARS-CoV, while well-differentiated cells expressing more ACE2 were readily infected.
You can just re-date the study to 2020 and replace SARS-CoV with SARS-CoV-2.

In short, I'm getting myself all worked up, but how can a doctor speak intelligently about the subject and not know this basic piece of information.
No offense, but he know A LOT more about it than you. The SiriusXM app is free right now. The whole interview would be on there and you might get the context you are looking for. IIRC the part you are referencing was him saying we don't know why it affects some in the at risk demo but not all.
https://www.howardstern.com/show/2020/5 ... ad-summer/
Howard was also curious why the virus wreaks havoc on some people while leaving others asymptomatic.
“It’s a dastardly virus—and I don’t use that word often,” Dr. Agus said. “In New York City, almost 95 percent of patients hospitalized had either obesity, diabetes, or elevated blood pressure. Period. Why does it discriminate against those people? We Just dont know.”
Typically, I'd defer to medical professionals and acknowledge I know A LOT less. But, that simply doesn't appear to be the case. Those groups have elevated ACE2 levels and that's the answer. Further, to your point, people within an at risk group don't all have identical immune systems which accounts for the different outcomes of individuals within those groups. That's not to say it's 100%, but it's pretty well established that we know how the virus works and we know the importance of immune systems. Granted it's a novel virus, so it's not 100% understood on a granular level like how important copper level in the blood is, but it's understood well enough to know what he says just can't be known.

Regardless, everything I've seen, which is granted possibly A LOT less than Agus because I don't follow vaccines, a 6 month timeline seems to at a minimum combine phases, shorten the timelines for observation between phases, and shorten the amount of time given to fine tune the correct dosage. I'm up to date on all vaccines as are my kids, but if they're going to be messing with RNA or creating a traditional vaccine to a type of virus that currently has no vaccines available, and do it in a shortened timeframe, all to cure a virus that in the end will likely have an infection fatality rate of less to well less than 1% for the majority of the demographics, then I'm going to be pretty skeptical.
OK. You seem to have the answers. But I'll still defer to his expertise. Maybe it's not as cut and dry as you think.

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Look, I apologize for this little convo going off the rails. I certainly didn't mean for my first post to irritate you. It was somewhat a stream of consciousness post. As noted, I haven't really looked into vaccines all that much and in passing saw that some stuff had been out there. When you brought up Dr. Agus' comments it was exciting and I was looking for the interview only to be disappointed to see the comments I quoted above.

In a time of extreme information where you can find no shortage of differing opinions even within the medical community, I feel like now more than ever sources need to be questioned and affirmed. So, perhaps I came off as too abrupt or critical and for that I apologize.

Then of course I take offense when someone says no offense and took it personally that you thought I was wrong. Which was not the way to handle it. Instead, I should have said that its fine to believe Dr. Agus and this is only a small portion of the interview, I'd guess.

But, in that small portion I'm talking about it's not my opinion. It's research presented through medical papers on reliable sources that disagree with Agus's claim. So, if you want to believe Agus over the following links, then that's your prerogative.

Link to show Sars-Cov-2 binds to ACE2:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32142651

Ditto Sars-Cov-1 binds to ACE2
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1287568/

There's a myriad of information about ACE2 and its prevalence in the conditions Agus listed too.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118626/

I'll continue to trust what is presented in the articles more than what I understand Agus' position to be. And would also acknowledge that perhaps he just didn't want to get into the boring stuff in the linked articles on Howard's show because, frankly, it's tedious and so nuanced few would understand it. At the same time, it's kind of dangerous to tell mass audiences the medical community, presumably, doesn't understand what's going on which I'd say is inferred in his comment of 'we just don't know'.

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Looked into the vaccine that may be ready in the fall a little more.

Here's a link.

https://www.popsci.com/story/health/cov ... september/
The researchers were able to move swiftly because they had already developed a vaccine candidate for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), a virulent respiratory disease caused by another member of the coronavirus family. Last year they showed that the vaccine was safe in people and prompts an immune response that lasts for at least a year. In January, the group began adapting the technique to create a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible for COVID-19.

...

To create their vaccine, the Oxford team genetically engineered a virus that is harmless in people to carry genetic material from SARS-CoV-2. The virus they chose, which belongs to a family called adenoviruses, causes a common cold in chimpanzees. The researchers modified the virus so that it could not replicate in people; this approach has previously been used to test vaccines for more than 10 different diseases, though none has made it to market.

The COVID-19 vaccine—which the researchers have dubbed ChAdOx1 nCoV-19—includes a gene that codes for the spike-shaped protein on the surface of the virus. Similar proteins are found on other coronaviruses like the ones that cause SARS and MERS, and help the pathogens invade our cells. Studies in animals have shown that antibodies the body produces after being exposed to this protein are key for developing protective immunity, George says.

When people receive the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, their cells will use the instructions in the viral DNA to build this spike protein. By training the immune system to recognize this protein, the vaccine prepares it to spring into action should it ever encounter the actual virus.
Sounds...promising.

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heyzeus
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by heyzeus »

This is purely anecdotal, so please do take it for what it's worth, and don't consider it authoritative or anything.

But my neighbor, who I like and respect a lot, is a clinical researcher for a pharmaceutical company; she works in drug trials. She has two kids exactly my kids' ages. I asked her when she thinks a vaccine will be widely available, and if she'd feel comfortable giving it to her kids once it is. She expects it'll be a year, and she wouldn't give it to her kids for at least a full year after it hits the market. There are likely going to be problems and almost certainly unforeseen complications with certain medical conditions or other drugs.

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Felix The Cat
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Felix The Cat »

heyzeus wrote: ↑
May 8 20, 8:27 am
This is purely anecdotal, so please do take it for what it's worth, and don't consider it authoritative or anything.

But my neighbor, who I like and respect a lot, is a clinical researcher for a pharmaceutical company; she works in drug trials. She has two kids exactly my kids' ages. I asked her when she thinks a vaccine will be widely available, and if she'd feel comfortable giving it to her kids once it is. She expects it'll be a year, and she wouldn't give it to her kids for at least a full year after it hits the market. There are likely going to be problems and almost certainly unforeseen complications with certain medical conditions or other drugs.
Fact of the matter is, there's a reason besides $$$$ why the red tape is there for FDA approval for drugs/vaccines/tests. Science is rarely ever easy and straightforward and evidence based medicine takes time. Expedited approval has its risks for failure and possibly harm.

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Leroy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Leroy »

North Dakota remains the last state that should end social distancing. 1,425 cases, 33 deaths and 714 recovered. Our high was 89 new cases on April 18.
I'm sure we will continue with the distancing, just seems a little off.

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mikechamp
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by mikechamp »

I'm going to start this post by fully admitting that what follows is speculative math.

I was trying to get an idea of how long it would take, once a vaccine is discovered/invented/created, to manufacture (just manufacture) enough vaccines to inoculate the world's population. I started by asking The Google "how many vaccine manufacturers are there in the world" and did not get a clear answer. One search result listed the Top 20 vaccine manufacturers. For purposes of this speculative math, I'm going to use 30 manufacturing facilities. Furthermore, I'm going to theorize that each facility can make a max of 100,000 vaccines a day. (Again, this is all speculative math. I might be off on the number of facilities or their production capabilities, but I'm hoping I'm in the ballpark.)

Those 2 numbers (30 x 100,000) computes to 3,000,000 vaccines a day. Assuming these facilities run at full speed and run every single day of the year, we would see a little over 1 billion vaccines at the end of 1 year. Therefore, it would take 7+ years to make enough vaccines for the world's population.

Feeling discouraged, I tried a different search. I asked The Google "how many flu vaccine doses were manufactured in 2018". One of the search results referenced a press release about a manufacturer that had made 70,000,000 vaccines for the 2017-2018 flu season. Now, making the big assumption that greed doesn't over take humans (which we know it usually does), let's assume that whichever company discovers the vaccine allows other manufacturers to license it for production. And, let's use the those same 30 manufacturing facilities from earlier. The math now looks like this: 70,000,000 x 30 = 2.1 billion. So the world gets enough doses for everyone to get inoculated in a little over 3.5 years.

Even though all of the above is admittedly speculative math, it's also incomplete.

Because here's the other component of this: None of the math above reflects the act of administering the vaccine to people. And yes, I get that the vaccine can be administered while it's in production. But let's do just a little more math. (I know, it's a Friday afternoon, but we can power through!) First, let's assume everyone can get it; meaning, no problems with cost or insurance or anything. It's Oprah City. (You get a vaccine! You get a vaccine!) And let's assume people form a very orderly and socially distanced line outside the vaccination site, so that they are optimally queued. Ok. Now, let's assume it takes 30 seconds to administer a vaccine. ("Hello. Roll up your sleeve." Disinfect, stick, plunge, extract, wipe. "Thanks for stopping by, take care now, bye!") There are a total of 31,536,000 seconds in a year. If we used a single robo-vaccinator (which I'm sure by now, "The Simpsons" has portrayed) that operated around the clock every day of the year, it could administer 1,051,200 vaccines.

But we know that number is not realistic, because robo-vaccinators aren't a thing. So we could look at the fact that there are 52 weeks in a year, and 5 workdays per week. (There are holidays, so no doctor office is open that many days, but this is speculative math. We're not going to factor for those. We'll just know the mathematical result is a little rosier than reality.) That gives us 260 work days. Doctor offices are typically open 8 hours a day, so assuming no lunch nor breaks of any kind, we're looking at 2,080 work hours, which translates into 7,488,000 work seconds. Divided by 30, and we're at 249,600 vaccines per year. At that rate, we'd only need 4,006.4 vaccination sites, running at an incredibly efficient rate, to administer 1 billion vaccines. If we had 2.1 billion vaccines, we'd need 8,413.5 sites. Now, humans won't operate at Max Q for 8 hours, but the responsibility wouldn't rest on just 1 person in each office.

Where I'm going with this is: While we very much should celebrate the discovery of a vaccine, it's not like we're all going to get crop dusted on the day of its discovery. If we assume my math is somewhere close to accurate, once we discover a vaccine, it's still going to be a long time before even half the world's population gets it.

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