Coronavirus

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Stumbled upon this gem, albeit already outdated, from the CDC last night showing the excess deaths in America.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

You can play around with the graph.

[ghostrunner]

Sweden apparently has a couple things going for it : about 50% of households are single occupant, they largely trust the government (at least several articles claim this), and they have a well-run and well-funded welfare state. I'm pretty sure they're all well educated too, and likely to take steps to protect themselves and each other. They have had to shut down some things though, including specific restaurants violating policy. They've also had a lot of deaths among older and immigrant populations.

If we tried here what they did, we'd end up with a lot more of that restaurant in Colorado in addition to the deaths among the old and the poor. We'd possibly have herd immunity quickly but we'd also have full hospitals and lots of people not treated for other problems. The economy would likely still be decimated.

Seeing the resistance to basic measures among some Americans doesn't give me a lot of hope for reopening going well. There was another tweet going around of a TJ Maxx in Arkansas. Packed with people and maybe two masks visible in the picture. And unlike the Colorado joint where the owner made her opening a political stand and attracted business because of it, this was just people shopping.

[Jocephus]

anecdotal of course but i wasn't impressed with what i saw on saturday when i had to make an errand run. mesa county has been lucky in CO but you woulda thought nothing was going on. drove by a sports bar and the patio was filled up, drove past a home depot and they had a line of people waiting outside, all crammed next to each other. i went into a liquor store and grocery store and both were quite full with fewer people wearing masks...like, now *i'm* the weird one for wearing one. luckily the employees seemed to be covered at least and the liquor store and grocery store still have distancing measure in place. granted, it was 2pm on a saturday, on a nice day but...i dunno, it made me uncomfortable the more i saw.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Sweden apparently has a couple things going for it : about 50% of households are single occupant, they largely trust the government (at least several articles claim this), and they have a well-run and well-funded welfare state. I'm pretty sure they're all well educated too, and likely to take steps to protect themselves and each other. They have had to shut down some things though, including specific restaurants violating policy. They've also had a lot of deaths among older and immigrant populations.

If we tried here what they did, we'd end up with a lot more of that restaurant in Colorado in addition to the deaths among the old and the poor. We'd possibly have herd immunity quickly but we'd also have full hospitals and lots of people not treated for other problems. The economy would likely still be decimated.

Seeing the resistance to basic measures among some Americans doesn't give me a lot of hope for reopening going well. There was another tweet going around of a TJ Maxx in Arkansas. Packed with people and maybe two masks visible in the picture. And unlike the Colorado joint where the owner made her opening a political stand and attracted business because of it, this was just people shopping.

I heard the governor during his press conference yesterday mention some pictures he'd seen over the weekend and was displeased with. Not sure if it was this one, but it would make sense. Also, not sure what the repercussions will be, but according to the photographer, the picture wasn't representative of the entire store, but whatever. It's bad enough.

Regardless, this brings up the main issue. We're, what, just over two months into the shutdown or whatever you want to call it in Arkansas. According to that CDC link I shared, Arkansas hasn't seen an increase in deaths compared to what is expected. The county the picture was taken has no active cases (that are known), a less than 2% positivity rate on tests performed, and no deaths. Having visited rural Arkansas a bit over the past couple weeks, people have either largely been sheltered from exposure or have been exposed and not become sick, likely the former. Either way, they're less than convinced this is an issue they need to take seriously because they remain largely unaffected.

ETA: Sorry, I didn't address the first part of your post. Yeah, I agree, mostly. Getting back to Arkansas, I really get the feeling that they are, without expressly saying it, using the healthcare capacity as their guide around here to how 'open' the economy can get. As I said before, hospitals in Little Rock, and presumably across the state, expanded their number of negative pressure/ICU equipped rooms by 5-10x then at the peak back in April never even tested the original capacity. Not commenting on the correctness of this approach, but it seems like they're going to keep re-opening and loosening restrictions as long as the hospitals can handle the patients. Can't comment how the other states are doing it, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's the approach.

[ghostrunner]

The reopening is fine depending on the area and the business but I don't get the reluctance to do basic stuff like wear masks and distance themselves. Restaurants are supposedly one of the least safe places.

If everyone's using healthcare capacity at least entertain the idea that your healthcare capacity wasn't taxed because things were shut down to some extent, and remember that you've got older and immune compromised people nearby too. The shoppers have a choice but the employees less so. Seems like the store manager really has to step in if it gets crowded like that and TJ Maxx corporate should step in too if necessary. Those places are so packed full of stuff they probably need to think about pulling some product out of the store to make more room. Beats being closed down.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

The reopening is fine depending on the area and the business but I don't get the reluctance to do basic stuff like wear masks and distance themselves. Restaurants are supposedly one of the least safe places.

If everyone's using healthcare capacity at least entertain the idea that your healthcare capacity wasn't taxed because things were shut down to some extent, and remember that you've got older and immune compromised people nearby too. The shoppers have a choice but the employees less so. Seems like the store manager really has to step in if it gets crowded like that and TJ Maxx corporate should step in too if necessary. Those places are so packed full of stuff they probably need to think about pulling some product out of the store to make more room. Beats being closed down.

So, I keep circling around because, really, I understand both sides of the arguments as I interpret them. On the one hand, covid is unknown, relatively speaking, wrt long term effects, mortality, etc. Even that CDC link is weighting the last 8 weeks which can, potentially, throw off the data (like probablyWest Virginia). There's an imperfect understanding of the effects an outbreak will have on a population. And, it's possible if not probable that those effects will vary across the country. For instance, does sunshine and the increased vitamin d help fight off respiratory diseases? Why are certain areas (like NY and Italy) getting overrun while other areas like Texas or LA aren't? Without knowing, how can a govt safely forecast what the hospital needs will be?

On the other hand, I get the argument that it's possible that this will last for a year or more. The economy can't withstand a prolonged shutdown. Under and unemployment are at what, like 25% already. Given the unknowns, especially long term effects, how can we ever hope to get back to a functioning society without some level of increased risk? And, if that's the goal, is it even possible to know the risks of long term effects?

In the end, hopefully we can all have meaningful conversations and come up with answers that are apolitical in nature, where half of society doesn't blame the other half for not being able to work or vice versa and feeling like they have to work in unsafe conditions.

[mikechamp]

Following up on the Sweden line of conversation, there is this from Yahoo News UK. Also, I had a bit of trouble at first connecting the headline with the message, but I think I have it now. Rather than cause confusion, I'm just going to post the headline and the link to the article. It would take quite a bit of copying & pasting to get his point across.

Coronavirus: Number of people infected probably much lower than first thought, WHO warns

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus- ... 34397.html

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Did the WHO just create a strawman and argue against it?

He told a briefing on Monday he was worried about “this narrative, there was an assumption as this disease spread around, that we are really just seeing the severe cases and the difficult cases”.

“When the sero-epidemiology comes it will demonstrate that most of the people have been infected and this will all be over and we’ll go back to normal business.

“Well the preliminary results from the sero-epidemiologic studies are showing the opposite, it’s showing the proportion of people with significant clinical illness is actually a higher proportion of all those who’ve been infected.

“Because the number of people infected in the total population is probably much lower than we expected... that means we have a long way to go.”

Dr Ryan described COVID-19 as “public enemy number one”, and said the world needs to “recalculate” its view of the coronavirus as a mild illness.

A few sero-studies were conducted in the US afaik, and may have contributed to 'this narrative' that he references, but again afaik, no one is making policy decisions based on that while the data is heavily scrutinized and the NIH conducts its own study.

Then he goes on to say well the preliminary results from (presumably) the WHO study shows the opposite and expects people to take it as fact without giving any data let alone methods?

The main point, I guess, is yeah, at this point the more people that have had it the better because the deaths/hospitalizations aren't changing. So, if 50% of the world has been infected and this is where we are, then that's more encouraging than if 0.05% of the worlds population has been infected as the later would indeed mean we have a lot farther to go.

[heyzeus]

Just a friendly reminder, this thread is intended to be non-political. Talk about science, impacts on society, impacts on you, etc here. There's a thread in the politics subforum to talk about the political implications and response to covid. Thanks!

[thrill]

To speak to my experience, I've had to get on 8 flights in the last two weeks and social distancing, mask wearing, and other responsible behaviors started strong last week, but since many states have re-opened to a limited extent, people's responsible behavior is degrading rapidly. It's very fun and easy to get back to normal. Feels like a huge relief to be out in the world again. I try hard to maintain proper behavior per CDC guidelines, but it's just not very easy. The worst offenders are overwhelmingly white, by the way. It's uncanny.

I'm extremely skeptical about re-openings and our society's collective ability to be responsible, having experienced the initial re-opening in Florida and North Carolina.