Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[Rieges]

If we're talking about Nady as a starter, let's stop talking. 2008 aside, he's not even a 1-win player. If we're talking about having him be the backup corner outfielder and backup first baseman, I'd rather give that job to Craig or someone else from the minors.

Look a little deeper - Nady's WAR looks a lot better if he's a full-time LFer. With that said, I'm not opposed to a Craig/Church platoon over Nady but Church seems to have more value as a RFer.

Nady's career UZR/150 in RF is -2.1 and his career UZR/150 in LF is 1.8. Not a big difference. In 2006, he had 512 PA and was worth .4 WAR. In 2007, he had 470 PA and was worth .8 WAR. Even if he's worth 1-2 WAR as a full-time LF, I don't see the point in signing him when we can get the same or better for the league minimum. And Nady is coming off of his second TJ surgery.

I hear what you're saying and you make a reasonable point assuming that Craig can be a reasonable facsimile of Nady or a similar OF. I guess I'm just not convinced that he, with no ML ABs, is ready to provide more than replacement level production and while I agree with your earlier statement that Cameron, DeRosa or Beltre would be preferable to Nady all things being equal, I'm uncomfortable with the multi-season contracts that all three are likely to get.

As for Nady's value, my point was more that his lousy RF defense in '06 and '07 (-11.4 UZR/150 in '06, -7.6 in '07) obscured his two best offensive seasons aside from '08 in terms of his WAR ratings.

[Rieges]

I have to admit that I'm a little surprised that there's so much support for giving DeRosa what will likely be a 3-yr deal if you believe the reports.

Well, we currently have no left fielder, a minor leaguer at third and a center fielder at second. DeRosa is one of a few players that can handle all three positions and has proven to have 25 HR power. The fact that he can start or fill in at any of those positions (and a couple others) makes him valuable and not easily replaced with a minor leaguer or rule 5 guy, as is the argument against most veterans with his numbers. Since he decided to start hitting, at age 30, he's been an .800 OPS and 106 OPS+. Not great but better than someone like Juan Encarnacion, who we paid similar money to.

I agree that his versatility is valuable but is it 3-years/$24 - $27M valuable? I don't think it is.

[Richie Allen]

I agree that his versatility is valuable but is it 3-years/$24 - $27M valuable? I don't think it is.

That seems a little steep to me too. I guess I was thinking more along the lines of 3/18-20. Not crazy about committing 9M per (or somewhere along those lines) to a 38 year old in the last year of a three year contract. Of course, as the roster stands today, he's possibly the 2nd or 3rd best bat in our lineup.

[Eephus Speed]

As for Nady's value, my point was more that his lousy RF defense in '06 and '07 (-11.4 UZR/150 in '06, -7.6 in '07) obscured his two best offensive seasons aside from '08 in terms of his WAR ratings.

And his '07 UZR/150 in LF was -30.6. But UZR/150 doesn't factor into WAR. His UZR numbers in RF were -7.5 and -4.1 in 2006 and 2007, respectively. In '06, he was worth -8.9 fielding runs and in '07 he was worth -9.3 fielding runs. Even if we bump those up to 0, he would have been worth just 1.3-1.7 WAR.

I maintain that we're better off seeing what Craig and Jay/Hamilton/Jones (or Craig and Church) have to offer.

Edit: Signing Kelly Johnson is another preferred option.

[Eephus Speed]

FWIW: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... ark-derosa

[Maclowery]

I loved when we nabbed DeRosa, but I would be very sad if he came back for that kind of money, especially for three years.

[stlouie_lipp]

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/ne ... NHeadlines

Jason Bay turned down the latest contract offer from the Boston Red Sox and was prepared to "move on", agent Joe Urbon confirmed to ESPNBoston.com on Saturday.

The Red Sox are also looking at free-agent left-fielder Matt Holliday. But agent Scott Boras is still trying to get Holliday as grand a score as Mark Teixeira got last winter, so serious negotiating has not begun.

[jim]

Is DeRosa's wrist completely healed? I like him as a ballplayer, but 35 with a wrist injury kind of makes me nervous for something 3 years out. The versatility is nice though.

[Eephus Speed]

I won't be surprised if Bay doesn't get that 5th year from anyone. He shouldn't even be getting offers of 4/60. Maybe this is too conspiratorial, but I wonder if teams and agents ever make agreements like this:

Team: "We don't want your player back next year, but we appreciate what he did here and don't want to hurt his chances of getting a great offer from another club."
Agent: "OK. Make us an offer of X amount over Y years, we'll decline it and we'll let the press know that other clubs have made more interesting offers."
Team: "Deal."

The Mariners would also like to retain third baseman Adrian Beltre or sign a front-line starting pitcher, like John Lackey.

If they retain Beltre, are they going to make Lopez their SS and put Figgins at 2B?

[Eephus Speed]

Is DeRosa's wrist completely healed? I like him as a ballplayer, but 35 with a wrist injury kind of makes me nervous for something 3 years out. The versatility is nice though.

If we're going that route, we should first talk to Kelly Johnson about his demands.