Has there ever been a more hollow .292?

[haltz]

Molina has a better on-contact batting average than league average. It's 70 points higher than his career rate. He is getting lucky to some extent, that much really isn't arguable. It's also not arguable that at least every ten games or so, especially if you don't strike out or homer much, that one of your hits (or outs) will be a hit or an out due to complete variance. All of that makes sense, right?

Now, less sabermetrically and more practically, take away just four measly hits and he's got a line of: .254/.319/.320. This is why we have been talking about sample size and that his offensive value is wrapped up in his BA. It's not bashing, it's just people wanting to know whether he's hitting better than we have expected (he's young) and we can call this some sort of an improvement, or if it's a mirage. There's just nothing wrong with that.

I think I'll wait before declaring a turnaround, and like every other rational Cardinals fan, I don't think he's as bad as he was last year.

Are there Cardinal fans that are out there rooting against Yadi just so they won't have to worry about explaining all of their negativity towards him?

Maybe, but they haven't posted in this thread.

Here's the funny thing about this season so far...you could almost safely argue that every player on this team is performing quite differently than the consensus thought heading into the season.

This is probably underlined by the fact that the Cardinals are 16-24 and the pythag record is even worse. It doesn't mean those talent-level assessments were wrong or right, it should be a glaring lesson in sample sizes, among other things.

[skmsw]

Gee, Richie, if the consensus really believed all those things, we don't put up a very bright consensus.

Then again, I'd also disagree with your assessment on some of those items.

1. Looper? He's pitched well so far. But much like Yadi, 8 starts is not a lot to work with. I'd be careful before putting too many eggs in that basket.

2. Wainwright and Reyes are both struggling. That should not be a huge surprise. Reyes had an ERA of 5 last year, and Wainwright had zero major league starts coming in. What were the reasonable expectations there?

3. Thompson is our second-best starter -- on a staff near the bottom on the league, and carrying an ERA over 4.60 in all of three starts? Kind've stretching here.

4. Molina is certainly doing better so far. In 100 AB. I won't debate this one any further, sicne the rest of this 8-page thread already does that.

5. Rolen and Albert worthless? Well, their unproductive starts are pretty well-documented, I won't challenge you here. But you probably are aware that despite the different batting averages, Albert has been way, way more productive than Yadi. And Rolen has been close to Yadi's equal productivity-wise, despite the 80 point or so difference in BA.

6. Duncan a "way better fielder" than imagined? What would cause you to say this? I've seen him make two very, very nice catches. Highlight quality, legit web gems. I've also seen him make a third catch that he dove for and caught, but only because he broke the wrong way first and had to make a spectacular play in order to get a routine out. Plus, he's dropped a routine fly ball, dropped a line drive hit right at him, and played probably half a dozen routine outs into extra base hits.

7. Duncan didn't play over his head in 2006?!? His slugging average is 100 points lower so far. He's hitting home runs half as often. He's popping out 50% more often. He just came off a MONTH of hitting .230 with an OPS of about 600, before ticking up these past couple games. It's early enough that he can kick it up back to where he was last year. But it's ALSO early enough that he can fade back to where he was between from the third week of April through the third week of May.

8. I'm not sure what the consensus was on Izzy. Myself, I had him down for an ERA someplace between 2 and 3.

[Richie Allen]

Here's the funny thing about this season so far...you could almost safely argue that every player on this team is performing quite differently than the consensus thought heading into the season.

This is probably underlined by the fact that the Cardinals are 16-24 and the pythag record is even worse. It doesn't mean those talent-level assessments were wrong or right, it should be a glaring lesson in sample sizes, among other things.

I think it says as much about the unpredictability of sports. There's a reason you could make a fortune betting on sporting events if you could predict what would happen in the future...but most people are not wildly successful at doing it.

[Richie Allen]

1. Looper? He's pitched well so far. But much like Yadi, 8 starts is not a lot to work with. I'd be careful before putting too many eggs in that basket.

Nobody would have dreamed of giving him a shot in the rotation. He's already far surpassed anyone's expectations. Even if he never pitches again. Fact remains, with 3/4ths of our season remaning, he's the only real bright spot on the mound.

2. Wainwright and Reyes are both struggling. That should not be a huge surprise. Reyes had an ERA of 5 last year, and Wainwright had zero major league starts coming in. What were the reasonable expectations there?

Again, the expectations of most was that Reyes should be somewhere between his WS start and his better outings last year. Wainwright was thought to have been a near sure thing. I still love both of their chances to succeed, even this year, but they have been far from impressive up to now.

3. Thompson is our second-best starter -- on a staff near the bottom on the league, and carrying an ERA over 4.60 in all of three starts? Kind've stretching here.

Stretching? How? Who has pitched better than him in a starting role other than Looper?

5. Rolen and Albert worthless? Well, their unproductive starts are pretty well-documented, I won't challenge you here. But you probably are aware that despite the different batting averages, Albert has been way, way more productive than Yadi. And Rolen has been close to Yadi's equal productivity-wise, despite the 80 point or so difference in BA.

You're talking productive number-wise. If you've watched the games, neither Rolen or Albert have done much to win us any games. 5 for 5 and 4 for 4 help pad the numbers but did very little to help the team.

6. Duncan a "way better fielder" than imagined? What would cause you to say this? I've seen him make two very, very nice catches. Highlight quality, legit web gems. I've also seen him make a third catch that he dove for and caught, but only because he broke the wrong way first and had to make a spectacular play in order to get a routine out. Plus, he's dropped a routine fly ball, dropped a line drive hit right at him, and played probably half a dozen routine outs into extra base hits.

Sorry, he's better this year. You'd have to be real stubborn to not concede that!

7. Duncan didn't play over his head in 2006?!? His slugging average is 100 points lower so far. He's hitting home runs half as often. He's popping out 50% more often. He just came off a MONTH of hitting .230 with an OPS of about 600, before ticking up these past couple games. It's early enough that he can kick it up back to where he was last year. But it's ALSO early enough that he can fade back to where he was between from the third week of April through the third week of May.

So you think he's a fluke?

[haltz]

I think it says as much about the unpredictability of sports. There's a reason you could make a fortune betting on sporting events if you could predict what would happen in the future...but most people are not wildly successful at doing it.

Odds-makers don't set lines by flipping a coin.

For our purposes, player prediction is always set at an over/under with the complete understanding that especially in a small sample relative to the player's career that there can be a huge amount of variance.

[Richie Allen]

I think it says as much about the unpredictability of sports. There's a reason you could make a fortune betting on sporting events if you could predict what would happen in the future...but most people are not wildly successful at doing it.

Odds-makers don't set lines by flipping a coin.

For our purposes, player prediction is always set at an over/under with the complete understanding that especially in a small sample relative to the player's career that there can be a huge amount of variance.

Would you argue that the St. Louis Cardinals in 2007 are playing about where they should have expected?

[haltz]

I think it says as much about the unpredictability of sports. There's a reason you could make a fortune betting on sporting events if you could predict what would happen in the future...but most people are not wildly successful at doing it.

Odds-makers don't set lines by flipping a coin.

For our purposes, player prediction is always set at an over/under with the complete understanding that especially in a small sample relative to the player's career that there can be a huge amount of variance.

Would you argue that the St. Louis Cardinals in 2007 are playing about where they should have expected?

No.

[ghostrunner]

:deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse:

[cabby7588]

:deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse: :deadhorse:

Agreed.

Yadier is the man.

[docellis]

Yadier Molina generates posts in threads.