EastonBlues22 wrote:Power isn't what we needed in that spot, what we needed was a ball in play.
They have more power AND they hit for a better avg.
We're not talking about who's going to have the better average at the end of next season...we're talking about a one AB shot here.
You're assuming that the AB you're going to get from Wilson/Encarnacion/Duncan is one of their "average" ABs...and you're also assuming that Molina is going to have one of his "average" ABs when you make that statement. But those averages are composites of both their hot streaks and their cold streaks...it's not how they perform in any given AB.
Molina is clearly in a hot streak...he's seeing the ball well and hitting it where it's pitched. He's not chasing balls out of the zone, especially not breaking pitches.
Wilson, Encarnacion, and Duncan are in extended cold streaks...all of them are chasing balls out of the zone (breaking and otherwise), and none of them are hitting the ball where it is pitched.
Eventually Molina will cool and the others will eventaully warm, but for a one AB shot...I want the guy who's giving me the good ABs now...whoever that is. This isn't a one or two game thing from Molina...this is two plus weeks now. Same goes for the other guys. These are extended, and visually obvious, trends...and I don't think a lot of data from multiple months ago should trump it.
Especially when the three hitters in question are marginal at best in their own rights...
I guess it just comes down to how much stock you put in hot or cold streaks. Clearly you, TFG and Kyle believe very strongly in them.
I wouldn't blindly say "ride the hot hand" if what I was seeing wasn't backing it up. If he was just getting randomly lucky on some GBs through the hole, that doesn't mean much.
But, for whatever reason, Molina's approach and execution at the plate has been markedly improved over the postseason. He hasn't "lucked" into it...he's earned it.
Wilson has earned the right to ride the pine, IMO. Encarnacion has had better plate discipline than Wilson, but he's not centering anything he swings at. Duncan has shown a decent eye at times, but a bad approach at the plate. I don't think he's hitting anything but mistakes inside for hits right now. I think he's a better option than Juan in that spot, and Juan better than Wilson...but I like my chances best with Molina of the four.
TimeForGuinness wrote:Just one question: if Juan and Wilson are better hitters, why didn't they win the game and allow Molina to bat?
I can't say I agree with this, though... I know what you're saying, but even if they were better hitters (and a hot streak didn't exist), it is still more likely-than-not that they would have recorded an out (meaning a player like Pujols gets on roughly 43% of the time, which is astounding... but that still means he records an out 57% of the time).
Arthur Dent wrote:How does one tell the difference between a hot streak due to a player using more skill from a random one like you'd see flipping a coin?
If you can tell when people are using good plate discipline and centering the ball, then you can tell the difference between the two.
It's not "lucky" to swing at strikes and not chase balls.
Neither is it "lucky" to center a ball and hit it hard somewhere.
What's "lucky" is what happens to the ball once it's either been hit hard or softly.
EastonBlues22 wrote:Power isn't what we needed in that spot, what we needed was a ball in play.
They have more power AND they hit for a better avg.
We're not talking about who's going to have the better average at the end of next season...we're talking about a one AB shot here.
You're assuming that the AB you're going to get from Wilson/Encarnacion/Duncan is one of their "average" ABs...and you're also assuming that Molina is going to have one of his "average" ABs when you make that statement. But those averages are composites of both their hot streaks and their cold streaks...it's not how they perform in any given AB.
Molina is clearly in a hot streak...he's seeing the ball well and hitting it where it's pitched. He's not chasing balls out of the zone, especially not breaking pitches.
Wilson, Encarnacion, and Duncan are in extended cold streaks...all of them are chasing balls out of the zone (breaking and otherwise), and none of them are hitting the ball where it is pitched.
Eventually Molina will cool and the others will eventaully warm, but for a one AB shot...I want the guy who's giving me the good ABs now...whoever that is. This isn't a one or two game thing from Molina...this is two plus weeks now. Same goes for the other guys. These are extended, and visually obvious, trends...and I don't think a lot of data from multiple months ago should trump it.
Especially when the three hitters in question are marginal at best in their own rights...
I guess it just comes down to how much stock you put in hot or cold streaks. Clearly you, TFG and Kyle believe very strongly in them.
I wouldn't blindly say "ride the hot hand" if what I was seeing wasn't backing it up. If he was just getting randomly lucky on some GBs through the hole, that doesn't mean much.
But, for whatever reason, Molina's approach and execution at the plate has been markedly improved over the postseason. He hasn't "lucked" into it...he's earned it.
Wilson has earned the right to ride the pine, IMO. Encarnacion has had better plate discipline than Wilson, but he's not centering anything he swings at. Duncan has shown a decent eye at times, but a bad approach at the plate. I don't think he's hitting anything but mistakes inside for hits right now. I think he's a better option than Juan in that spot, and Juan better than Wilson...but I like my chances best with Molina of the four.
I hear you, we just agree to disagree. I certainly understand your viewpoint.
EastonBlues22 wrote:If you can tell when people are using good plate discipline and centering the ball, then you can tell the difference between the two.
It's not "lucky" to swing at strikes and not chase balls.
Neither is it "lucky" to center a ball and hit it hard somewhere.
What's "lucky" is what happens to the ball once it's either been hit hard or softly.
I think there is a significant unpredictable element to hitting that goes beyond what happens after the ball is hit. Consider free throw shooting. The shooter has complete control, but no one ever sinks all their shots.
Arthur Dent wrote:I think there is a significant unpredictable element to hitting that goes beyond what happens after the ball is hit. Consider free throw shooting. The shooter has complete control, but no one ever sinks all their shots.
I think he addressed that, though, by saying, "what's 'lucky' is what happens to a ball after it has been hit hard or softly" (paraphrase).
In other words, you'd expect a hard hit ball to have a much better chance of going for a hit than a softly hit one...
Isn't that what you're getting at? You're saying that regardless of how well a ball is hit, we don't know what's going to happen to it? I have a feeling I might have missed your point.
jim wrote:
And every piece of objective data say the opposite for hitters - they don't matter.
I PH for Molina there.
The objective data tells you who's most likely to do what in a vacuum situation...or over a long period of time when anomalies have a chance to even themselves out.
In a very specific situation, you can either treat it like a vacuum situation and do what the stats say...figuring you'll come out ahead in the long run if the stats are accurate predictors.
Or, if there is no long run, you can augment the stats with the other things you know about the situation in order to try to come up with the best choice. This is where watching closely how people have been performing recently (or something else) can help you make a judgement about the situation. It's not ignoring the stats, it's understanding that raw data that's gathered over a long period of time and over a wide variety of situations isn't necessarily the best predictor for what will happen in one very specific one at a specific point in time.
Players get hurt and it alters their swing. They're in a slump so they start to press and it alters their approach at the plate. A lot of things happen that can mitigate what the stats might otherwise say.
