Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[Maclowery]

The last four pages have put me over the fence. Damnit. Now I'll officially be Disappointed if he signs with the Yanks. At the same time, I've moved into Fairly Confident that this is an offer he will take. I hope he inks today, so we can start arguing heatedly about third base! I am in Freese's corner.

[Fat Strat]

But I think Holliday is worth more in the next 3-4 years than a 16-18m average salary. I personally have no problem overpaying him during his decline years if that means getting him at a lower salary during his peak years.

I totally agree. And it's Boras' camp that's asking for the opt out clause... it's in the player's best interest. He will be worth $16-18 million for the next 3-4 years. He probably won't be worth that in years 5-8. We can under pay him to over perform in the first half decade of the contract and then let him walk away if he wants and then we don't have to overpay him to underperform over the last part of his contract.

If that clause gets him to sign at that rate, then it's an absolute steal for the Cards. He's worth more than $20 million per based on other players with similar talents.

[clevername]

if he gets the opt out and has already started his decline by the time it comes around and he doesn't opt out it's no different than if we don't give him the opt out and he's here all 8 years anyway.

the opt out really looks like a complete non issue to me as long as it's in the 2nd half of the deal. At worst we lose him as a high producer at an advanced age but gain money to spend elsewhere to replace that production, even if he's a bargain at the time, and mitigate our risk for future age related decline.

[Fat Strat]

Plus, if he's performing well and has been a Cardinal for going on 7 years, it will probably end up looking like an ARod and Yanks situation. He'll opt out. We'll resign him for a ridiculous amount of money, on we'll go.

[cards2468]

Plus, if he's performing well and has been a Cardinal for going on 7 years, it will probably end up looking like an ARod and Yanks situation. He'll opt out. We'll resign him for a ridiculous amount of money, on we'll go.

is that a good thing?

[clevername]

Plus, if he's performing well and has been a Cardinal for going on 7 years, it will probably end up looking like an ARod and Yanks situation. He'll opt out. We'll resign him for a ridiculous amount of money, on we'll go.

is that a good thing?

yeah, that's actually the part where I hope the Cards cut ties and go younger. If he opts out let him go.

[Fat Strat]

Plus, if he's performing well and has been a Cardinal for going on 7 years, it will probably end up looking like an ARod and Yanks situation. He'll opt out. We'll resign him for a ridiculous amount of money, on we'll go.

is that a good thing?

Considering that it gives us a chance to walk away completely when he opts out and if we want to, I don't see much of a down side. We don't know what the club is going to look like in 6 years. We don't know what the market will be like. We don't know how Holliday is going to perform. We don't know what he will be worth. The key to my statement is "IF". You really can't have a reasonable expectation that Holliday will be performing at a level where he will command a huge raise at age 36 to return to his long-tenured home town ball club.

IF by some miracle he IS performing that well (highly unlikely) AND we're in a position where its in our best interests to retain him OVER exploring the market for younger talent (again, highly unlikely) THEN we're probably also in a position where we can afford to pay him whatever we want over the next 2-3 years because we'll have won a ridiculous amount of games and made a ton of money over the past half decade.

Remember, the alternative is not we have Holliday at $16 million over 8 years with no opt-out clause. The alternative is not having Holliday at all or, possibly, having to pay Holliday $20 million over the 6 years that we actually want him.

[Eephus Speed]

If the opt-out clause doesn't kick in until after the 4th or 5th year, I don't give a rip about it.

But we need to get this deal done, as it impacts how we approach the 3B situation.

[Socnorb11]

Rotoworld:

ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick heard from a source that Scott Boras and his client Matt Holliday "are still looking for something that they're not finding."

It's safe to assume they were not totally satisfied with the eight-year, $128 million contract offered by the Cardinals on Monday.
Source: ESPN.com

[TGantz]

Just give him what he wants! I don't care. I just want him on the team. NOW!