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I was looking at the Cardinals Game Notes for the Florida game and I noticed there was a listing of their recent spring training records. Now I've always labored under the impression that spring training records are irrelevant to a team's pending success or lack thereof. In fact, I've noticed over the years that many times the better teams seem to have some of the worst records in spring training.

I've guessed that this may be due, somewhat, to those better teams already having a somewhat established roster and spring training for those particular teams is used more for an audition for their new prospects. For whatever reason, the best teams do not always rise to the top during spring training.

After looking at the recent records of the Cardinals in spring training, however, it makes me wonder if there may be some correlation between spring training records and how a team ultimately performs during the regular season.

Spring Training Records..............Actual Season Records
2006 15-14 (.517)......................2006 83-79 (.516)
2005 15-11 (.577)......................2005 100-62 (.617)
2004 17-12 (.586)......................2004 105-57 (.648)
2003 12-15 (.444)......................2003 85-77 (.525)
2002 17-10 (.629)......................2002 97-65 (.599)
2001 17-15 (.531)......................2001 93-69 (.574)
2000 17-11 (.607)......................2000 95-67 (.586)

2003 was the only year our spring training record was under .500 and, subsequently, the only year since 2000 that we missed the playoffs.

Now I'm not actually contending that there is a strong correlation between the two but I'm curious if anyone thinks that there is anything to learn from spring training records and how a team eventually will perform. Are the numbers above simply a coincidence? I found it interesting that the spring training winning percentage somewhat mirrored the actual season winning percentage.

0% important

My gut tells me it is pretty meaningless. I think the biggest things are:
1. health
2. sorting out your lineup / position battles
3. getting your starters ready to go 5-6 innings early on until they full build their arm strength

Your data suggests that the ST record may serve as a general predictor of regular season success, but the sample size if far too small and narrow. You would need to examine the records of all teams over the same period to get a better sense of this.

vh2k6 wrote:0% important

Seconded and thirded.

Hungary Jack wrote: You would need to examine the records of all teams over the same period to get a better sense of this.

I'm almost certain than such an examination would show very little correlation. That's why I was somewhat surprised by the numbers I listed above.
ERA, in 2003 spring training, was over a point higher than any other year listed, and lack of pitching was arguably the reason we missed the post season that year.

greenback44 wrote:

vh2k6 wrote:0% important

Seconded and thirded.

While I understand the intended point of your responses, I doubt that there is 0% importance. An 0-30 record might be cause for some alarm.

I don't think it's very important at all.

I can remember seeing a really, really crappy team finishing at (or very near) the top of Spring Training standings, only to be obliterated by the rest of the league in the regular season.

I want to say it was either the Royals or the Pirates, and within the last couple of years.

Kyle wrote:I don't think it's very important at all.

I can remember seeing a really, really crappy team finishing at (or very near) the top of Spring Training standings, only to be obliterated by the rest of the league in the regular season.

I want to say it was either the Royals or the Pirates, and within the last couple of years.

Oh, I know. I think it happens all of the time. And it seems like I have a memory of the Braves consistently being near the bottom of the spring training standings, but I could be wrong.

ST helps for getting the timing down and building the body up to playing every day

-Brodie

ST games are like office softball games.