Jay Jaffe's NL Central comments

[mikechamp]

These comments came from a chat with FanGraphs' writer Jay Jaffe that occurred on August 11. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @jay_jaffe.)

Fewer NL Central questions this time. I included 2 bonus Q&As, both about expansion. Enjoy!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-f ... t-8-11-26/
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Which trade at the deadline do you think is most likely to be brought up in 5-10 years as That One Trade where it backfired and the prospect substantially overshadows the main piece?

Jay Jaffe
I’m probably not the best FG writer to ask about this but I’ll go with one from a deal that I wrote up: Alexander Frias, an 18-year-old 50-FV outfielder who was traded to the Cardinals in the deal that sent Dustin May and Jojo Romero to the Brewers:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers ... relievers/

Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski had recently described Frias as “a freak with crazy bat speed and physical projection, the guy on the list with the best shot to have a Junior Caminero type of rise.”

I also wonder about Jefferson Rojas, a 21-year-old shortstop dealt to the Mets in the Clay Holmes trade:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cubs-pi ... ewing-gum/
Perhaps it will balance the cosmic scale as it pertains to the 2021 Pete Crow-Armstrong/Javier Báez deal?

Don’t miss Eric and Brendan’s ranking of all the prospects traded at the deadline: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the ... -deadline/
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Feels like the induction of Scott Rolen has opened the floodgates for the big 3 3B of the current era (JRam, Manny, Arenado) and potentially even Evan Longoria? Or does the David Wright of it all draw a line there?

Jay Jaffe
I’d argue that the floodgates began opening in 2018 with the induction of Chipper Jones. Prior to his induction, there were just 13 third basemen in the Hall, but after Jones came Edgar Martinez in 2019, Rolen in 2023, Adrian Beltré in 2024, and Dick Allen in 2025, running the total to 18.

You could actually argue the floodgates opened earlier. At the point when I began covering HOF elections in 2002, just 8 were in the Hall. Paul Molitor was part of the first class after I invented the metric that would become JAWS in 2004, then Wade Boggs (2005), Ron Santo (2011), and Deacon White (2013) preceded Chipper.

I don’t see Longoria or Wright getting in anytime soon, but I do think José Ramírez, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado will make it. I see Machado has restored his lead among those three after Ramírez overtook the other two earlier this season.
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Esmerlyn Valdez over the past 9 games is 1/25 with 17 Ks. Somehow in that time, his OBP has gone from .371 to… .371 because he’s also walked 13 times. Not really a question, just a very unusual stat line I wanted to point out!

Jay Jaffe
Wow, that is bizarre.
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Would a salary cap actually help teams like the Brewers? They’re not all of a sudden going to sign a Tucker or a Yamamoto if the Dodgers aren’t able to. A salary cap just makes the top teams less competitive – and teams not trying as hard as they can to win is a bigger issue with the league.

Jay Jaffe
To borrow a quote from friend Craig Calcaterra, the main function of salary caps is to “save 30 of America’s biggest [expletive] some money.”

A big chunk of the money from competitive balance tax violations helps to subsidize revenue-sharing receivers such as the Brewers. Take that away and the money has to be made up somewhere. The big thing at stake in the upcoming CBA negotiations is how to more equitably share local broadcasting revenues. The idea is for a team like the Brewers to come out ahead in that, but whether the two sides can come up with a mechanism that satisfies the players remains to be seen — color me extremely skeptical it will wind up as a salary cap because the MLBPA is as dead-set against that as I am against eating American cheese.
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What are your preferred expansion cities? Nashville seems like a given, so another out west seems appropriate. SLC? Portland?

Jay Jaffe
Even while knowing that the supposed financial benefits of expansion teams help drive local economies, I’m at least somewhat hopeful Salt Lake City gets a team, though my parents (85 and 84) may not be around long enough to see that come to pass. The region does make a ton of sense in terms of a ready ownership group, favorable demographics, and taxpayers’ willingness to fund a private ballpark, as opposed to, say, Portland, Oregon where there’s a lot more entrenched opposition.

Wrote about all this in 2023, and of course events make some if it out of date but you can get an idea: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/salt-lake-c ... -for-real/

I do think SLC does have the inside track on Portland for a western-half addition. Nashville seems to have more momentum than Charlotte or Raleigh or wherever in North Carolina is vying for a team. I don’t think there’s a strong enough ownership group or a will to build a ballpark in Montreal, for as much aesthetic and historic sense as that would make.
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Portland does not have enough big companies to buy the suites. It’s isn’t happening. I worry about the dry up of the Great Salt Lake and the ability of anyone to breathe there in fifteen years…

Jay Jaffe
You and me both on the Great Salt Lake, a scary proposition I noted in that 2023 piece.
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[cardsfantx]